No one can know the true reasons why the public voted that way on Sunday. Nor can one seriously sustain speculations of bizarre electoral gambits, deliberate capitulations, genius strategies and the like. Even the most serious analysts lack foundations for such speculations.
There are only two reasons that seem indisputable:
* Society got fed up.
* The society has chosen the preaching of a liberal or similar format whose banner was raised by both the libertarian candidate and the candidate of Together for Change.
And as soon as these two easy conclusions are formulated, a question and a comment arise.
* Has society fed up with the government, Peronism or the model?
* There is no doubt that Milei was the one who best conveyed to society the message of liberalism and anti-statism, beyond the quality or superficiality with which he did so.
When Macri says that more than 60% chose the path of the anti-statist and freedom model, he may be mixing his optimism with his hope. The reaction of society remains to be seen when it sees the disappearance of what it believes to be the protection of the State.
And the economist’s systematic position of raising the liberal flag and proclaiming himself its exclusive representative, in addition to being a sabotage of his own philosophical preaching, is also a double-edged sword.as explained later.
Neither can an opinion on how citizens will vote in the next or next elections be supported by any analysis, survey or objective evidence. Necessarily any forecast will be influenced by one’s own hopes, or, what is a little worse, by one’s own interests of any kind.
Due to the numerical impulse effect, and due to the turn of many conductors, opinion-makers and applauders who always join the supposedly triumphant bandwagon of politics with some kind of expectation, Milei’s path to the presidency seems the clearest. Which together with some symptoms, inconsistencies, attitudes, discursive, setbacks and responses of the candidate can contribute to what happened with the Macri or Trump government: an erroneous reading, mechanics, timing, communication, policy or methodology, or an excess of verbiage and disqualifying, or conceptual or practical errors, make a project fail.
That would shatter any dream of escaping from statism and returning to freedom. Society is desperate, and longs for a next government to solve all its problems, without taking away any subsidy, any advantage or privilege, depending on the place it occupies in society. Esa desperate hope it is basically the real danger. Because he is capable of moving to choose the one who promises the most or shouts the most, but he is capable of condemning or immolating him if he does not meet his expectations or what he thought he understood.
In this context, a too blunt, disqualifying, unprepared and simplistic candidate can win a lot of support, but you can lose it quickly and achieve the opposite effect: the strengthened return of what they want to combat. It works like a vaccine: it inoculates an attenuated or dead virus of liberalism, in this case, but immunizes the social organism with all the antibodies that exist against it to combat it and make it disappear.
And that is the risk that lovers of freedom, free enterprise and a serious, austere and responsible State should fear the most.
They don’t come back anymore?
Many analysts will still remember the angry reactions of the Macri government to any criticism or opinion, answered with that phrase of ignorant arrogance: “they don’t come back anymore”, which did so much damage to Macrismo and the country.
There are many symptoms of Milei that make us fear a course that is somewhat reminiscent of the 2015 government, but this time with worse consequences, at least from the point of view of lovers of freedom, merit, private activity and rejection of all kinds of totalitarianism or autocracy. The candidate now with more chances, subtly at times, taking advantage of the non-versation of his followers at other times, with some complacency of those who are versed, with the impulsiveness of soccer fans, with criticism silenced by fear of being disqualified at the screams of his part or for other unidentified reasons, he has changed his thinking and speech more than once.
It is not easy to forget his articles and equations in 2015, defending gradualism and Sturzenegger’s Central Bank, which made him call those who did not agree with him a donkey, plus his position on certain state companies, which now only intends to force not have a deficit, a dream of Macri that this time he assumes that it will be achieved. The very dollarization, which many have bought as the definitive way out of inflation, an Argentine symbol along with the shield, the flag, the cockade and the anthem, which the libertarian adopted not long ago, has now been kicked out for a couple of years .
That can not only disappoint many, but it also speaks of an intention to control the price of the dollar with some mechanism, to the point that the explanations that are circulating are analyzed. As the clarification of some sensible ones that it will take more than one mandate, (the column believes that it will take longer) to straighten the crooked and tangled path that is inherited, while its voters sunk in weariness wait for the situation to change in a reasonable amount of time, ( for example two months?).
Of course, this column would applaud a dollarization that would be the culmination of a plan to lower spending and prevent future national, provincial, and municipal governments from continuing with the ruinous populism of spending, in upon payment, of the inevitable quasi-currencies. But this cannot be achieved with voluntarism, nor by trying to put pressure on the Legislative Power with the cheap argument that “the president elected by the people deserves to have the laws he wants approved”, who should receive the same criticism and disapproval as Cristina. Kirchner trying to put pressure on the Judiciary to eliminate the control of powers.
In addition to a complete and improved path for this aspect, beyond what the authors of the luck paper on the subject defend, it is vital to focus on proposing solutions to the problem of the internal debt in pesos of the State, or the debt of the private ones with the banks or with each other, which are dealt with very superficially, almost simply, in the dollarization projects, which have now been postponed.
Added to this is the problem of the exchange parity, which should be left fully released to the market, without the intervention of the previously burned Central Bank, which does not seem to follow that course in several of the dollarization ideas, or withholdings, finally another exchange rate parallel but downwards, or the opening of imports, or the stocks, which now seems to frighten liberals who do not dare to foresee the effects of eliminating these tyrannies and therefore postpone them. Gradualism, they used to tell him before.
Even when talking about “tying the hands of the spending State with a dollarization law” it seems to be forgotten that a law can be modified by another law, or with quasi-currencies, or with all kinds of tricks. At the end of the day, you live in a country whose Constitution says that a Co-participation law must be passed, and for 30 years it has been deliberately broken by all governments, which have haphazardly delegated to judges what should be the sane of Congress.
It would seem that this type of analysis is placing on Milei’s shoulders the solution of problems that have been incubating since 1946, in one way or another. But it is not this column that does it. It is precisely the vote of the fed up, or the vote of those who believe that the instant liberalism preached by a passionate and enraged Milei who pushes him to the presidency, will solve all his problems in a short time and as they wish, a vote that will give a somersault in the air when you notice that this is not the case. That is why it is better to correct that belief right now, even if it costs votes, a principle that is also liberal.
thief caste
The successful slogan against thief caste The New Class that Milovan Djilas mentioned 80 years ago, referring to the communist political bureaucrats – a fight that this column subscribes to – forces us to seek allies to push the essential laws for the monumental renewal that is needed and promised. Legislative and political alliances should be sought with someone. By childishly getting angry against Patricia Bullrich, the only possible alliance is despised, which could be a temporary position with electoral objectives, but which cannot be sustained beyond the theater if it wants to gain credibility and enforceability.
Perhaps that attitude that seems dogmatic of disqualifying everyone is reflected in the instant mutation of its candidates (sic), who seemed to abandon their restraint and even their professionalism the day after the PASO to take the arrogant and arrogant pose of wanting to imposing their ideas on Congress, or with 100 constitutionally ineffective plebiscites, serve no purpose, lead to no unity or solution, and predict heroic failure rather than painstaking and possible success. Instead, Javier gets into a tenement fight with Patricia, in which those around him seem to show solidarity… There is no way that La libertad avanza can carry out its ideas or similar ideas without an alliance with Together for Change, Bullrich management.
It can be said that the reverse is also true, surely. And it would be the case if the electoral result was different.
The other underlying issue that requires more study, precision and a lot of analysis of all kinds, is the expense. The column also considers that the present level of waste and consequent deficit is the main reason for the collapse. But once again, enunciating and announcing closures of ministries is not lowering spending, (remember that Marra ensured the relocation of staff) any more than “calling on companies to finance themselves”, as Macri learned well. Airlines, YPF, Telam, public TV, to give a few examples, are caves of corruption, accommodation, waste, uselessness and deficit. And if the decisions bother friendly pockets, it will be necessary to choose who to betray, put in Creole. At this point there have also been changes and setbacks that can end in great disappointment.
Except for the inexplicable news about Guillermo Francos, a favor, there are several renowned economists and respected former officials who surround and advise Milei. Perhaps instead of pleasing him, they should convince him of some realities that may explode not over the candidate, but over the entire population. The plans should not be a statement or a list, but should be supported by analysis and feasibility. That avoids a lot of setbacks and disappointments.
the overriding theme
The column will dedicate the space of several weeks to discuss and propose ideas to substantially lower the spending of the national state and the provinces and municipalities, the most important step of all that must be taken to be able to seriously talk about change. All the other issues revolve around this concept, including, or mainly, corruption, a no lesser component. Nothing better than the recent declaration on the privatization of the Conicet of the libertarian lion to apply to the entire item of spending and possible remedies.
In this case, as in all others, half of what is spent is useful and the other half is superfluous, criminal, inefficient and expendable. The secret is to find out which half is the one to remove. And that is not the task of brilliant thinkers. It is laborious, meticulous, tedious and obsessive. It could be said that it is not the task of economists. It is the task of accountants. It is not a political issue. It’s a management issue.. It is not necessary to investigate only the gnocchi Thieves of all levels must be investigated. You don’t need five brilliant advisers. It takes 10,000 officials willing to rummage through the garbage. Supported by the three powers.
That is what whoever claims to be the President of the Republic has to understand. And his advisors too. Any other path is to open wide a door for the return of arrogance, disqualification and the mafia. Or the caste.
2023-08-19 03:42:48
#risk #Milei #antiliberal #vaccine
