Surprising calm in the Atlantic over the past few weeks was abruptly interrupted by a series of new tropical disturbances, according to the National Hurricane Center. On Friday, easterly waves were observed with varying degrees of maturity.
The disturbance with the highest chance of forming into a new tropical storm was located west of the Cabo Verde islands and had the least chance of hitting any land mass. Its track was pointing towards the wide open Atlantic. Meanwhile, a tropical wave between Africa and the Antilles had a medium chance of development and was expected to track west-northwest, likely missing the Caribbean islands and veering off into the northern Atlantic.
Another disturbance, located about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands, was flagged by the National Hurricane Center. Although it only had a slight chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm on Friday morning, this wave was expected to produce some squalls across the West Indies over the weekend and early next week.
In addition, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Bahamas was linked to a low-pressure system in the upper atmosphere that was moving west. There was a chance that this rotation could dig down towards the surface, potentially forming a tropical low-pressure center or storm next week. From a Florida perspective, this system could bring much-needed rainfall over the weekend. However, the development of a closed-off circulation at the surface was not expected until the disturbance had passed the peninsula and moved west into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Looking ahead, the system would likely move towards the Texas coast, where rain is desperately needed due to an ongoing extreme to exceptional drought. The sudden increase in tropical disturbances has raised concerns among experts and the public, especially considering the anticipated hyperactive second half of the hurricane season. The water in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico remains much hotter than normal, providing favorable conditions for tropical storms. However, over the next five days, there is expected to be an inordinate amount of wind shear in the Atlantic, which could limit the development of the four systems being tracked.
It is worth noting that the stronger westerly winds aloft, which help shear the head off of fledgling storms, are commonly seen during El Niño events. This year’s El Niño is in full swing and expected to last beyond the current hurricane season. While there has been concern that the typical El Niño patterns, including wind shear, may not consistently appear over the Atlantic in the coming months, the forecast indicates strong wind shear for the next five days, which is likely to cap the development of the tracked systems in the Atlantic basin.
Overall, the sudden increase in tropical disturbances and the presence of favorable conditions for storm development have raised concerns about the upcoming hurricane season. The public is advised to stay informed and prepared for potential impacts.
How is the National Hurricane Center addressing the threat of these disturbances to ensure the safety of those in potentially affected areas
Ward. Although it was not expected to develop into a tropical system, it could bring heavy rainfall to the Bahamas and potentially the Florida peninsula.
Overall, these new disturbances serve as a reminder that hurricane season is still in full swing. While the Atlantic has been relatively calm in recent weeks, it only takes one storm to cause significant damage. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor these disturbances and provide updates as necessary to ensure the safety of those in potentially affected areas.
I hope everyone in the potential affected areas stays safe and prepared.