Market Update: AEX, Prosus-Tencent, ASML-Samsung, and More

AEX -0.3% today and everything about Prosus-Tencent, ASML-Samsung, AEX and recessions, Avantium, SBMO and whatever else matters.

Tencent always reports its quarterly figures after the stock exchange closes in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Shanghai.

The fund has no American American Depositary Receipt (ADR) listing, like all other Chinese technology juggernauts like Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, et cetera. These quarterly figures fall in the middle of European trade and in Amsterdam the (declining) largestshareholder (25.4%) listed.

In short, there we read what the market thinks of those figures. So Prosus and look at the daily chart, the numbers are not what was hoped. Also notice that false move up on immediately after publication. Apparently it’s just how the cap of the stock market is?

You can read the Dutch match report here and this is Reuters about Tencent. That only says nothing about the increasing margins, as ABMfn does. Maybe that’s the wrong move. It is always just what the market considers to be the heaviest and that can change without giving any reason.

Our analyst Niels Koers has his first verdict on Tencent and Prosus. Quote:

What is striking about the figures report is that turnover growth is lower than the consensus, but that profitability is actually growing faster than expected. So a mixed bag.

The growth of the Online Gaming segment was disappointing, but on the other hand, the margins of the tech giant are on the rise. Although the economic and political environment in China is extremely uncertain, the long-term outlook remains bright.

Given the unlimited share buyback program and the high discount of 40% on the board, Prosus is a very suitable means to take a position in this Chinese tech giant.

The investment risk is above average, but in our opinion this is offset by an attractive return in the long term.

Does the price dip in Prosus offer a buying opportunity after the figures of Tencent IEX Premium via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) August 16, 2023

ASML

It is the week of the major shareholders at the Damrak, because after Philips-Exor and Tencent-Prosus, there is also ASML-Samsung today. That sold 3.55 million shares in the past quarter (probably over-the-counter at one time to one or more parties) and is said to have 2.75 million more.

Why are they not on this list of major shareholders…? Bloomberg ditto. Special stocks perhaps, because Intel, TSMC and Samsung have long held large positions in ASML, which is so crucial to them, which they have now reduced. Asked around, but we don’t have the answer for you.

Nevertheless, it does not seem to be a cause for concern, because investing is not a core business for Samsung and there is no reason to worry about ASML anymore. It is now standing on its own two feet. Bloomberg confirms the message and also knows what Samsung does with those money: probably spend it at ASML 🙂

Samsung Electronics Co. cut its stake in ASML Holding NV by more than half in the second quarter, as the world’s largest memory maker beefs up its chipmaking business.

The South Korean company sold around 3.55 million shares from April to June, according to its first-half report filed earlier this week. That lowered Samsung’s holding in the Dutch chip gear maker to 0.7%, or 2.75 million shares, from 1.6% at the end of the first quarter.

Spokespeople for Samsung and ASML declined to comment further.

The sale raised about $2.2 billion, according to Korea Economic Daily. Samsung is expected to use the proceeds for investment in chip production lines, the paper reported, citing industry sources.

Now that we look. APG is the largest Dutch ASML shareholder with 0.2% and who wouldn’t want to trade postage with Capital Research Global Investors?! Impressive… A much higher than average market risk at first sight, but we do not read any hedges etc. from this.

Recession! And then the AEX?

The bad news today is this. Two quarters of contraction in a row = recession according to the books. Hereby, although the second and final estimate is the figure that goes into those same books.

Recession or not, as long as the hair of the AEX is in good shape, we know on the stock exchange. As cautiously as the index falls, the profit expectations of the AEX are just as cautiously running. It is too early to speak of the turn, or that we have seen the bottom in the profit expectations and therefore also in the AEX itself.

Dating back to 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the stock index with the longest true track record. Gosh, how easy investing used to be, before WWII! In during the recession and possibly out again during the subsequent doubling of the market. Yep, how simple it is.

Of godfather of all stock market traders Jesse Livermore managed to win and lose everything four times in that time. Not to mention what investing cost back then. There were no index trackers for a handful of basis points that you can trade every second at best.

The AEX and recessions (fortunately!) hardly have a track record, but entering during a recession was certainly no guarantee of immediate success. The MSCI Netherlands has a longer track record, but it doesn’t make things any easier. March 2020 was a golden moment…

You can only see from the pictures that recessions can last longer than two quarters. Where you hear everything and everyone about whether or not a recession and when, you haven’t heard anyone yet that it might also be one of a year, or even longer. If not mild or intense. And mr. Market is listening.

On the other hand, the EU is currently avoiding an official recession for now. Despite the fact that the Germans are once again pulling on the wrong side of the rope for the umpteenth time in history. In the US it is still a question as well and so is the global economy.

And if you really don’t remember and don’t like it anymore… Gold sometimes does well during a recession, or is it more of an (anti) dollar and interest asset?

What will the gold price do IEX Premium via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) August 16, 2023

The front

Avantium is one of the more speculative index funds on the Damrak. If it delivers on its promise, the sky the limit. If not, it is at best dead money. For analyst Martin Crum, the investment proposition does not change today with those numbers: high opportunity, high risk. Quote:

Avantium’s half-year results were somewhat worse than expected, but that is of minor importance. The important thing is that the pilot plant in Delfzijl does what it is supposed to do, so that the group will eventually be able to conclude extremely lucrative licenses with the industry.

The group has more promising projects in-house, such as the Ray Technology project, for which a subsidy of €53 million was recently awarded (see more here). But for the time being, the focus is mainly on the start-up of PEF production in Delfzijl.

Investors who nevertheless insist on anticipating a positive outcome are advised to keep their interest limited in that case. After all, there is no guarantee of success and Avantium will first have to strengthen its financial position considerably.

Group needs additional financing IEX Premium via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) August 16, 2023

SBM Offshore

SBMO Offshore’s current dividend yield is 7.6% – and growing. Yes, here too – hello, here we are again – there is risk again. A corruption investigation is underway in Monaco. Sounds fancier than bribery in Brazil, but this can also result in a hefty fine and may lead to a discount and high yield.

Our Martin weighs and weighs.

False start of the year for oil services provider SBM Offshore IEX Premium via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) August 16, 2023

Broad market

Since the provisional top on July 28, things have stopped with our diva called AEX, but the damage is still only a handful of percent and the upward trend is still alive. There is, however, a modest decrease again today, but there is some underlying damage here and there. So more.

Market-wide, not one course stands out, so you don’t have to talk about that over dinner. The dollar is even flat. Volatility is rising somewhat here in Europe (VDAX New), but falls 3.4% to 15.9 in New York (CBOE VIX Index).

Oh yes, those two crazy IPOs on the Big Board this week. Sure? That’s one:

And you can already feel it hanging, here a golf ball swings into the crocodile pond. Fund entered a SPAC yesterday at $4 and has already had a lifetime.

Interest rates are falling slightly today, but all trends are clear: up.

Fair square 5

First the banking advice today with reductions for Aegon, DSM-Firmenich and TKH. Click on the picture for details.

Anything else? Nagging rates, unfortunately. There is no major common market sharer, unless various defenses disappoint. It is striking that the funds lead the risers with a sword of Damocles over their heads, the former light bulb factory in Eindhoven and De Staatsmijnen in Limburg.

Philips enjoys the attention of Exor for a while DSM-Firmenich rises on a down day and that with a price target reduction from a bank. We don’t see it every day either Adyen has figures tomorrow and pay particular attention to the margins ABN Amro is €0.62 ex-dividend Aegon flirts again with €5 TKH started lower today, but still recovers some of yesterday’s damage on OCI and AMG are flying in all directions again, but hopefully in your risky direction Just Eat Takeaway gets another portion of blood under our nails today There is no news Fastned. It won’t be VinFast today either… Other usual AScX suspects such as Pharming, Sif, Nedap and ForFamers are having a good day again for unclear reasons and Majorel, Heijmans, BAM, CM.com, Ebusco and Kendrion unfortunately not. Azerion certainly not, but who still burns their fingers?

2023-08-16 16:02:25
#Closing #call #dont #read #AEX #situations #Damrak #IEX.nl