Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) revealed its outlook on the baht direction this week. There is a tendency to move within a range of 34.90-35.50 baht / dollar compared to last week. The baht closed at 35.06 baht/dollar after trading in the range of 34.62-35.19 baht/dollar last week. The baht touched the weakest level in 1 month.
The dollar continued to strengthen against all major currencies last week. While US bond yields (bond yields) rose. Although the data indicates that inflation is slowing down by the consumer price index for the month The U.S. July rose 3.2%, compared with a 3.0% gain in June, while core inflation came in at 4.7%, the lowest in nearly two years, as a share of the fight from Federal Reserve officials. Fed) Producer Price Index Including the bond auction results at the end of the week. pull up the bond yield especially long-term instruments while the contract It reflects that the Fed will maintain the policy rate in the range of 5.25-5.50% and there will be another set of CPI data before the September 19-20 meeting. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks net 116 million baht and sold bonds 17,835 million baht, with debt instruments maturing at 7,161 million baht
for an overview this week. The market will pay attention to monthly retail sales figures. US July Including the minutes of the Fed policy meeting held on July 25-26, in which case the data is still strong. and the Fed clings to the view that Inflation has not eased to the level that the Fed is pleased with. Investors may postpone expectations about the timing of the first rate cut.
In addition, if market participants are increasingly concerned about the Chinese economy Amid tensions in the real estate sector We expect the dollar to move in a stronger range in the short term.
Regarding domestic issues, the Governor of the Bank of Thailand said that the Thai economy continued to recover. from private consumption and tourism But it is expected that the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will lower its economic growth forecasts for this year and 2024 from the original estimates of 3.6% and 3.8%, respectively, due to a slowdown in the export sector.
As for the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on September 27, the governor of the BOT stated that there is an opportunity to either hold interest rates or raise interest rates. While not too concerned about the delay in forming a government, the BOT views that the new government’s policies should not focus on extreme populism. But should focus on long-term stability.
2023-08-15 05:21:58
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