Today’s fall of the ruble below the psychological mark of 100 per dollar caused a serious stir among Russian economists.
Analysts of banks and financial companies believe that the dollar may rise to 105-106 rubles before it starts moving in the opposite direction and the ruble regains some of the lost ground. It is possible that the ruble will move to the area of 115-120 rubles per dollar, as fundamental factors continue to play against the Russian currency.
Russian economic analyst and blogger Anatoly Nesmiyan in his Telegram channel notes that the Russian authorities may go for a psychological operation, further lowering the ruble to 140 per dollar, and then slightly raising it.
Against the backdrop of a sharp fall in the ruble, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Monday evening informedthat on the morning of Tuesday, August 15, will hold an emergency meeting of the Board of Directors at the key rate.
The Russian economy has not yet felt the influx of additional foreign exchange earnings from the increase in oil prices.
Analysts who have already published their forecasts after the fall of the ruble on Monday believe that the Russian currency can be traded in a fairly wide range with an upper limit of up to 106 rubles, and a lower limit of about 90 rubles.
“The current situation is characterized by high uncertainty, you can focus on the range of 106-98 rubles per dollar,” – said “Agency” Yaroslav Kabakov from the investment company “Finam”.
Last week, the Bank of Russia decided to stop buying yuan into the National Welfare Fund by the end of 2023. This measure was supposed to support the national currency, but in the end it did not prevent the ruble from weakening below the psychological mark of 100 rubles per dollar.
Putin’s aide Maxim Oreshkin on Monday criticized the “soft monetary policy” (MPP), which is the responsibility of the Bank of Russia under the leadership of Elvira Nabiullina. It was the policy of the regulator that became the main reason for the weakening of the ruble and high inflation, the official said.
Recall that rPreviously, the Bank of Russia reacted rather strangely to the historic collapse of the ruble exchange rate.
Author: Mark Voroshilov
2023-08-14 14:21:12
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