VonLucas Maier
close
An epidemiologist for the state of New York is raising the alarm on Twitter. But how is the Corona situation in Germany?
New York – The current corona numbers from the state of New York are “very worrying”. At least if, according to Eric Feigl-Ding, to the head of the COVID Task Force at the New England Complex Systems Institute.
The German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) posted a post by Feigl-Ding on Twitter with the words “You have to keep an eye on that. Our early warning system is in place.” On Saturday (August 12), his American colleague called on people to use masks to protect themselves against corona infections using the hashtag #MaskUp.
The background to his request is that the hospitalization rate for corona patients in the state of New York had recently doubled. But how dramatic are the developments in New York really at the moment? We took a closer look at the numbers.
New York: what’s up with the corona escalation?
For example, if you compare the numbers from July 14 with those of the most recent (August 10), then Feigl-Ding is right. While in July there were still a total of 395 Covid patients treated in a hospital in the state of New York, in August the figure was 841, more than twice as many. The numbers, referred to by Feigl-Ding, were provided by New York State.
Corona: Karl Lauterbach relies on early warning system in Germany. (archive image)
© Britta Pedersen/dpa
If you take a look at the hospitalization curve over the past year, it is noticeable that the hospitalization rate between April 2022 and April 2023 was consistently above 800. Usually this was even in the four-digit range.
Corona on the rise? Figures from New York are far less worrying
The low hospitalization scores in June and July 2023, of around 400, were last seen in New York State in July 2021. Also in 2021, the number of hospitalizations doubled within a short time. On July 18, 2021 there were still 378 people who were being treated in hospital with Covid-19, on August 1 there were already 788. So more than twice as many.
7-day incidences per 100,000 inhabitants in Germany by age group total population: 30 – 4 years: 25 – 14 years: 015 – 34 years: 235 – 59 years: 260 – 79 years: 3Over 80 years: 9Source: Federal Ministry of Health (as of August 13, 2023)
Comparing the two scenarios, it is noticeable that the increase in July 2021 was much faster. At that time, however, the rates continued to rise. Up to 2,476 in September and after a brief improvement in the situation, up to over 12,000 in January 2022. So it remains to be seen whether or not cases will continue to rise. It remains questionable whether the values should currently be rated as “very worrying”.
The 7-day incidence per 100,000 residents in the state of New York is currently just 4.4. But how is the situation in Germany?
Corona in Germany: Lowest incidence since records began in July
A look at the current data on corona infections in Germany provided by the Federal Ministry of Health shows a more relaxed picture than in the state of New York. In Germany, the 7-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants is currently three.
PathogenSARS-CoV-2diseaseCOVID-19First known case1. December 2019Deaths 20 million (WHO May 2023 estimate)
For comparison, at the highest point of the omicron wave on March 24, 2022, the value was 1961. The previous low was reached in July 2023, with an incidence of one. The hospitalization incidence per week and per 100,000 inhabitants is currently 0.6. For comparison, in the state of New York there are currently 4.3 hospitalized Covid patients for every 100,000 inhabitants.
As the sharp increase in the hospitalization rate from New York State in 2021 shows, one should not lose sight of developments. Especially against the background of a new corona variant that is currently spreading rapidly. With the statement “You have to keep an eye on that”, Karl Lauterbach hits the nerve of the times. (Lucas Maier)
Most recently, Karl Lauterbach announced that the Federal Ministry of Health would soon be launching a campaign “to draw attention to the risks of cannabis consumption”.
List of rubrics: © Britta Pedersen/dpa
2023-08-13 19:04:59
#Lauterbach #startled #increase #corona #numbers #York #worrying
