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Surprising Increase in US Oil Inventories Contradicts Analyst Expectations

US oil inventories rose during the past week, contrary to analysts’ expectations, after recording the largest decline in its history in the previous week, while gasoline and distillate stocks witnessed a decline in varying levels.

The weekly report, issued by Energy information management Today, Wednesday (August 9, 2023), US crude inventories increased by about 5.9 million barrels, during the week ending August 4, bringing the total to 445.6 million barrels.

These numbers contradicted estimates by Standard & Poor’s Global, which suggested a decline in US oil stocks by about 0.93 million barrels, according to what was monitored by the Energy Research Unit.

On the other hand, the strategic reserve of oil stocks increased by one million barrels per day during the past week, bringing the total to 347.8 million barrels.

This means that had it not been for the withdrawal from the strategic reserve, the commercial oil stocks in America would have risen by 6.8 million barrels, but the impact on the markets depends on the change in the commercial stock, according to what was monitored by the Energy Research Unit.

According to a law approved by the US Congress, withdrawals from the strategic stockpile usually occur, with the aim of mitigating the budget deficit, by covering annual sales from the reserve and its management costs.

The rise in US oil stocks

The rise in US oil stocks came with a strong decline in crude exports and a slight increase in imports, according to the report, which was seen by the Energy Research Unit.

US oil exports decreased by 2.923 million barrels per day, bringing the total to 2.360 million barrels per day, while imports increased by about 14 thousand barrels per day, to record 6.682 million during the past week.

This means that net US oil imports – which include the strategic reserve – rose by 2.937 million barrels per day, during the past week, bringing the total to 4.322 million barrels per day.

The “energy” platform usually ignores oil production data in the United States, which comes within the weekly reports of inventories, because it does not reflect the actual levels, as it depends on future expectations.

The graphic below – prepared by the Energy Research Unit – monitors US crude oil production from the beginning of 2019 until May 2023:

Low stocks of gasoline and distillates

Gasoline inventories in the US fell by 2.7 million barrels over the past week, to reach the level of 216.4 million barrels.

While distillate stocks – which include diesel, heating fuel and others – declined by about 1.7 million barrels, to reach a total of 115.4 million barrels.

Analysts had expected a decrease in gasoline stocks by about 1.1 million barrels, with distillate stocks remaining unchanged.

consumption of oil derivatives

The consumption of oil derivatives in the United States increased by 704 thousand barrels per day, to reach 20.727 million barrels per day during the past week.

This came with the increase in the consumption of gasoline and jet fuel by about 464 and 80 thousand barrels per day, respectively, while the consumption of distillates decreased by about 64 thousand barrels per day.

The total consumption of oil derivatives also increased by 2.9%, when compared to the average of the past 4 weeks on an annual basis, with the consumption of gasoline and jet fuel increasing by 1.4% and 4.3%, respectively.

On the other hand, consumption of distillates in the United States decreased by about 0.5% during the past 4 weeks, on an annual basis.

Import details

US oil imports rose to 6.682 million barrels per day during the past week, compared to 6.668 million barrels per day in the previous week.

The increase in America’s oil imports came from 5 countries; Led by Brazil and Nigeria, with about 177 and 143 thousand barrels per day, respectively.

Crude imports from Libya, Iraq and Colombia also rose by about 87, 70 and 6 thousand barrels per day, respectively.

On the other hand, America’s oil imports from Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico decreased by 225, 97, and 93 thousand barrels per day, respectively, and decreased from Ecuador by about 33 thousand.

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2023-08-09 14:48:59
#oil #stocks #rose #million #barrels #week #Energy

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