Regularizing Trilateral US-ROK-Japan Summit to Send Strong Message to North Korea and China

American experts assessed that there is a high possibility that the trilateral summit will be regularized with the US-ROK-Japan summit to be held in the US next week. If successful, it would send a strong message to North Korea and China. Reporter Jo Eun-jeong reports.

Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, told VOA on the 8th that “the possibility of a regular US-Korea-Japan summit meeting is much higher than a year ago.”

[녹취: 클링너 연구원] “Certainly the likelihood of regular summit meetings is much higher than even a year or so ago. And that’s due, in large part to the inauguration of President Yoon. We’ve seen the US has long tried to urge our two critically important allies in Northeast Asia, to not only improve relations, but also to augment or increase their security cooperation and obviously, it’s always been hampered by the historic difficulties between South Korea and Japan.”

Researcher Klingner said that South Korean President Seok-yeol Yoon owes a lot to the possibility of regularizing the US-Korea-Japan summit.

“The United States has long been working to improve not only relations but also strengthen security cooperation with our two very important allies in Northeast Asia, but historical difficulties between South Korea and Japan have always been a stumbling block,” he said.

However, Klingner said that President Yun “took a very courageous and politically risky approach to Japan, including on the issue of forced labor, and promoted US-ROK-Japan cooperation.”

Thomas Sinkin, a senior research fellow at the Atlantic Council, also from the State Department, told VOA on the 8th that he was “cautiously optimistic” about the possibility of regularizing the US-Korea-Japan summit.

[녹취: 신킨 연구원] “It’s hard to predict with precision because the politics of the situation could shift. But right now, it’s looking quite good, because there’s a coincidence of interests among the three countries and their leaders, that they realize it redounds to mutual benefit. And they want to sort of institutionalize and lock this in. So I’m cautiously optimistic.”

“It is difficult to predict accurately because circumstances and politics can change,” said Shinkin.

Previously, Cho Tae-yong, head of South Korea’s National Security Office, told reporters on the 4th that the three heads of state agreed on the regularization of the summit in relation to the US-ROK-Japan summit, and that they were also seeking ways to strengthen communication between the leaders.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Ram Emanuel also said in an interview with Japan’s Jiji News Agency on the 3rd that this summit will be “a historic meeting and will signify a strategic transition in the region.” It will be the beginning of the regular meeting,” he said.

Former US Ambassador to South Korea Robert Rapson told VOA on the 8th that South Korea and Japan would each want to hold a trilateral summit in their respective countries.

[랩슨 전 대사대리] “Undoubtedly, both President Yoon and PM Kishida will want to reciprocate by hosting their own “special” trilateral summit like at Camp David, so let those play out first before formally institutionalizing this format.”

Former Acting Ambassador Rapson said, “Without a doubt, both President Yun and Prime Minister Kishida would like to reciprocate by holding their own special trilateral summit, like the one at Camp David.” We will have to watch the event first,” he said.

US-Korea-Japan SummitPossibility of upgrading the ‘Sodaja Security Consultative Body’

Jeffrey Honung, a senior researcher at the Rand Institute, said that if the trilateral summit meeting between the US and Japan becomes regular and institutionalized, it could be the beginning of a ‘minilateral’ security consultative body.

[녹취: 호넝 연구원] “There are a lot of these mini lateral formats that provide the U.S. greater flexibility to pursue common causes. South Korea has always been the outlier to this because it’s not a member to any of these other groupings. And so, in some ways, institutionalizing on a more routine basis, some sort of trilateral gathering between the US, Japan and South Korea, I think it does start to then take more of a flavor of some of these other mini laterals you see in the region, at least it’s the start of it, it’s not going to jump directly into something like orcas or quad, but everything has to start somewhere.”

“The small-party security consultative body provides great flexibility to the US in pursuing a common cause,” Honung said.

He continued, “If the US-Korea-Japan meetings become more regular and institutionalized, they will begin to show the characteristics of other minority security consultative bodies in the region.” It could be a start,” he said.

In this regard, researcher Klingner said that the United States and Japan would not form an official alliance, and that it was a “too high goal.” There is no support for this in Korea or Japan.

[녹취: 클링너 연구원] “Well, I think we’re not going to get a formal Alliance, that’s just simply a bridge too far, there’s not support in South Korea or Japan for that, but we can have much greater coordination and actions by three countries, short of a formal organization. Similarly, there’s a lot of focus on should the quad become a Quint or a Penta should five eyes become six eyes or seven eyes. And there’s sort of a lot of baggage which goes with formally expanding a group, whereas you can sort of have the same positive benefits without having to go through the formal bureaucracy.”

“Even if it falls short of an official body, the three countries can engage in much deeper coordination and action,” Klingner said.

South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a bilateral meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania, where the NATO Summit was held.

“Regularization of trilateral summits, a strong signal to North Korea and China”

Andrew Yeo, chair of the Brookings Institution, told VOA on the 8th that the regularization of the summit between the US and Japan would send a strong signal to North Korea and China.

[녹취: 여 석좌] “The region is becoming, you know, security wise is becoming more complicated and more intense. Because of North Korea’s incessant missile testing, because of Chinese greater assertiveness in the region. And to have these three countries meeting regularly, I think is a clear signal that those actions are actually pushing us and its allies closer together. And I think that’s an important signal for both allies and adversaries alike.”

“The Pyongyang region in India is becoming more complex and intense in terms of security,” said Yeo, “because of North Korea’s ceaseless missile tests and China’s aggressive attitude in the region.”

“The regular meeting of the three countries of the United States and Japan is a clear sign that (North Korea and China’s) actions are bringing the United States and its allies closer together,” he said. “It is an important signal for both allies and enemies.”

Researcher Honung predicted that the regularization of the trilateral summit would lead to more candid discussions on regional security concerns and strengthening military cooperation.

[녹취: 호넝 연구원] “I know South Korea is very sensitive about the issues relating to China but behind closed doors to actually have the leaders discusse China in a very open and frank manner would be very be productive… but I think when you start to go beyond that, and start to look at some of the things that the US has done another trilaterals like the US, Japan, Australia, like regularizing more military exercises, I think that starts to touch a little bit more on sensitivities that will maybe take a little bit more time to overcome. Obviously, they have done some things in the military realm, but doing it in a bigger or more robust manner, even considering having Japanese self-defense forces possibly on South Korea, for some exercise, those are very sensitive issues.”

“I know Korea is very sensitive on China-related issues, but it would be very productive for the heads of the three countries to have a very candid discussion about China behind closed doors,” Honung said.

“Just as the United States is pursuing jointly with Japan and Australia, the United States and Japan will be able to regularize more military exercises and deal with sensitive issues that take time little by little,” he said.

“The U.S. and Japan have obviously had some cooperation in the military field, but we can explore bigger and stronger ways of cooperation in the future,” said Honung. there is,” he said.

Patrick Cronin, chair of Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, said that the regularization of the trilateral summit between the United States and Japan will “help set rules, establish institutions, and establish regional and international order” beyond security cooperation.

[크로닌 석좌] “The overall benefit transcends security by helping to set rules, build institutions, and build regional and global order. These sound like abstract ideas but refer to very tangible and serious challenges, ranging from principles governing large-language Artificial Intelligence to ensuring supply chain security from economic predations and protecting critical infrastructure from malevolent hacking. Together, the trio of leaders can make a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific more of a reality than they can individually or bilaterally.”

Cronin said building an international order “sounds like an abstract idea, but it represents very concrete and serious challenges, from the principles of governing large-scale artificial intelligence to securing supply chains from economic extortion and protecting critical infrastructure from malicious hacking.” said.

He said, “(The US, South Korea and Japan) together can realize a freer, more open and more inclusive Indo-Pacific than we could have done individually or bilaterally.”

Evans Revere, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said, “Given current and emerging threats, as well as the common interests and shared values ​​of the three countries, we expect the three countries to strengthen new cooperative mechanisms over the next few years.”

[리비어 전 수석부차관보] “Because of current and emerging threats, as well as their shared interests and values, we should expect the three partners to strengthen their emerging trilateral cooperative mechanism in the coming years. This will include more regular consultation and dialogue, joint training and exercises, and joint planning. The growing threats and challenges from North Korea, China, and others are changing regional security dynamics in important ways. The most important change is the emerging U.S.-ROK-Japan partnership. The East Asia region is in the midst of a dramatic and important shift.”

“This will include more regular consultations and dialogues, joint (military) exercises and joint planning,” he said.

Former Deputy Assistant Secretary Revere said, “As threats and challenges from North Korea and China increase, the security dynamics in the region are changing significantly, and the most important change is the newly emerging US-ROK-Japan cooperation.”

“East Asia is in the middle of a dramatic and important change,” he stressed.

This is Cho Eun-jung from VOA News.

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2023-08-08 18:50:00