COMMENTS
He hoped he would come to his own, but they would not have him. Putin’s “African summit” was by far a failure. Africa would rather have food, writes Morten Strand.
TRANSFORMATION: After Russian bombs in the Transfiguration Cathedral in the center of Odesa. Food and churches are targets of war. Photo: REUTERS / NTB Show more
Internal comments: This is a comment. The comment expresses the writer’s position.
Published on Monday 31 July 2023 – 20:14
It was just a matter of time. In warrior-president Vladimir Putin’s desperate war against almost everything and everyone, food is an obvious weapon. Last year, gas was a weapon in the war against Ukraine’s main supporters in Europe. This year, food is a weapon in the war against the world. Poor countries in Africa and the Middle East are the ones most affected by Putin breaking the grain agreement with Ukraine in mid-July. The agreement allowed the country to export its wheat, which is 10 percent of the world’s exports, and corn, which is slightly more. Now ships loaded with Ukrainian wheat to the world are closed by an illegal Russian blockade. The world’s poorest are being held hostage in Putin’s increasingly desperate war.
Retired lieutenant general Arne Bård Dalhaug believes this is Ukraine’s absolute biggest challenge. Video: Telegram / Twitter. Reporter: Vegard Krüger / Dagbladet TV. view more
It was last weekend ready for “Operation Charm”. Putin was to sell himself to Africa’s leaders, who were invited to what was sold as an African summit in St. Petersburg. But the “summit” was not very top-heavy. Only 17 out of 54 African countries sent their heads of state or government to Putin’s hometown, 26 fewer than at the previous similar meeting in 2019. And several of these leaders demanded that Putin turn around and once again allow the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea.
It won’t happen at first. After Putin did not extend the grain agreement, grain warehouses in the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and other cities on the Black Sea have been Russia’s main war targets. Millions of tons of food have burned up, along with warehouses and port facilities.
Meanwhile, Putin is trying to make friends, especially in Africa. And the starting point wasn’t so bad. Many of the previous generation of African leaders had close ties to the Soviet Union, many having studied at Lumumba University in Moscow, a university that trained liberation leaders in the struggle against European colonialism and apartheid in the 1960s, 70s and 80s. The leaders of several African countries still feel that they owe Moscow a debt of gratitude.
But debt of gratitude is not quite like other debt. Debts of gratitude often stink, while “money doesn’t smell”, as the Russian revolutionary leader Vladimir Lenin is said to have once said. The price of wheat and corn has jumped by around 20 percent since Putin broke the grain agreement with Ukraine two weeks ago. Then it doesn’t help that Putin in St. Petersburg promised between 25 and 50,000 tonnes of free grain to six particularly Moscow-loyal countries in Africa. Let’s say it will be four million tonnes.
It is relatively small to what Ukraine exported in the year the grain agreement applied, because then Ukraine exported 33 million tonnes of grain and maize. That the grain becomes 20 percent more expensive for 48 African countries, while parts of the consumption in six countries is free, is simply revealed for what it is, namely a desperate attempt to buy friends. Therefore, Putin’s “African summit” did not become the diplomatic success he had hoped for. Africa wants money, but Putin is broke, and Russia only accounts for a small fraction of Africa’s trade. While the money is found in China, Europe and the USA.
So much about Africa. For Ukraine, of course, the breach of the grain agreement is also an accident. In 2021, food exports accounted for two fifths of export earnings. We’re talking about $68 billion in revenue, and we’re talking about the livelihoods of many farmers, and in the economy surrounding the big agribusiness. Will Ukrainian farmers sow in the spring, if this year’s crop burns up or rots because it cannot be sold, and the war is not yet over?
Meanwhile, there is reason to think about what can be done to get through or past the Russian blockade. Several African leaders, including Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, asked Putin at the weekend to return to the grain agreement. But Putin is not an easy man to turn. But, as The Economist magazine suggests, Africa can send ships to Ukraine under its own flags. It will be politically difficult for Putin – “Africa’s best friend” – to stop such ships.
Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is – after the leaders of China, North Korea and Iran – a man Putin can talk to. Putin is scheduled to visit Erdogan in mid-August. Turkey is a major importer of Ukrainian wheat, and if there is anyone who can turn Putin around, it is probably the Turkish president. The West could also provide Ukraine with missiles with the range to sink the Russian navy monitoring the blockade.
Some of the Ukrainian the food escapes anyway via rail, and by ship up the Danube, to European consumers. But this is also problematic, because if a lot of Ukrainian grain comes up the Danube, it will dump prices for European farmers.
There may not be that many ways into Putin. But there are more and more ways around him. Use them.
2023-07-31 18:16:14
#Africa #grain #Putin
