Tourist flows in Europe are likely to change profoundly due to global warming. He says it a study by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC) who, working on data from 269 regions collected over a period of twenty years, tries to predict how things will change for this important European industry between now and 2100. Scientists have imagined four different scenarios: an increase in temperature of one and a half degrees compared to 1990 values, two degrees, three degrees or four. The first two scenarios are also the objective of the Paris climate accords: to contain overheating within 1.5-2 degrees Celsius. The others, on the other hand, would represent a substantial failure of current policies. The data collected made it possible to identify strong correlations between the trend of the climate and that of hotel reservations and – on this basis – to formulate forecasts for the future.
The Mediterranean countries would especially lose out, but those in the Alpine space would also be negatively affected, such as Austria or Slovenia (Switzerland is not included in the study). Cyprus would lose almost 10% of its tourist attractiveness. Instead, Germany, Denmark, France, Ireland, Holland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and above all Finland would gain. Travel patterns may also change with the seasons, with travel increasing in April and decreasing in the summer months.
Tourism is an important economic sector for the EU, responsible for the creation of 10% of GDP (but this is an average figure, for individual countries such as Greece, Croatia or Italy it is a much more important activity). The sector is made up of 2.3 million companies that employ over 12 million people, mostly seasonal. If we take into account related industries, the jobs that depend on tourism rise to almost 27 million. In 2019, before covid, almost half of the arrivals of international tourists in the world concerned Europe: 745 million arrivals out of a billion and a half.
Published on: July 23, 2023, 4:59 pm Last modified: July 23, 2023, 9:04 pm
2023-07-23 19:04:34
#Study #Climate #change #tourism
