Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal and the inability to use the sea corridor for grain exports are forcing Kyiv to supply its agricultural products by river, road and rail transport, notes Bloomberg in his July 21st post.
According to Argus Media’s calculations, which the agency refers to, stopping the export of Ukrainian grain by sea will reduce Ukraine’s monthly export potential by about half, from 7-8 million tons to 4 million tons, and will also add logistical problems to this country.
One of the alternative routes is Ukrainian ports on the Danube, along which the border between Ukraine and Romania runs, and further, through Romanian ports, to world markets. This route is already used by Kiev: the volume of grain exported along the Danube increased from about 1.4 million tons to 2 million tons per month last year.
However, due to abnormal heat in Europe, the Danube became shallow. According to the Romanian Water Authority, the water level in the transboundary river is currently 40% below the average for this time of year, which makes it difficult to supply grain by large ships, forcing them to be underloaded or use smaller ships.
Ukraine will try to use rail and road routes for the export of grain, but it is difficult to export significant volumes in this way, Bloomberg notes.
Thus, according to UkrAgroConsult data cited by the agency, Kyiv exported no more than 1.2 million tons of grain per month by rail, and the volume of exports by heavy vehicles did not exceed 676.7 thousand tons per month.
Earlier this week, the foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey discussed alternatives to the grain agreement, from which Moscow withdrew on July 18. As an alternative to the Black Sea Initiative, the ministers considered other options for supplying grain to the countries most in need, not dependent on the subversive actions of Kiev and its Western patrons, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
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2023-07-21 09:49:00