Almost a month ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary army began a short-lived uprising against the Kremlin. For a long time we did not hear from Prigozhin, but on Wednesday he suddenly appeared. What role is there for Prigozhin and his Wagner Group?
Shortly after the mercenary forces turned back and broke off their advance towards Moscow, the Kremlin announced that Wagner boss Prigozhin was leaving for Belarus. Three days later, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that Prigozhin had arrived in his country.
But by now it is clear that Prigozhin was not there. He was in Russia, where he had a summit meeting with Vladimir Putin five days after the uprising. There the Russian president, the Wagner boss and some top commanders of both armies discussed the future of the Wagner Group.
It is not known exactly what was decided. But it is clear that Wagner will not return to Ukraine for a while. “Wagner is more than just what they did in Ukraine,” says Russia expert Han Bouwmeester. “They are in Syria and Africa, where they also represent Russian interests. Russia benefits from that, so Putin is not out to completely dissolve Wagner.”
The Wagner uprising
Months before the uprising, Wagner boss Prigozhin was at odds with the Russian army command and the Ministry of Defense. Among other things, he complained about a lack of ammunition for his mercenary army. On Friday evening, June 23, Prigozhin revolted against the Russian government. In a short time, Wagner took the strategic place of Rostov-on-Don, after which his troops advanced rapidly towards Moscow. In the evening of Saturday, June 24, Prigozhin decided, after negotiations with Putin, to turn around. Suddenly the uprising was over.
Wagner present in other places
Instead, Russia appears to be breaking up the Wagner Group for now. During the summit, Putin tried to limit Prigozhin’s power by taking control of Wagner from him.
On Tuesday, several hundred Wagner fighters arrived in Belarus to train troops there. Last weekend, a few hundred fighters also left for the Central African Republic, where the mercenary army has been fighting rebels with the government for five years. In exchange for this aid, which is often accompanied by human rights violations, Wagner, for example, receives valuable rights to the mineral resources of such a country.
What about Prigozhin? He suddenly appeared in a video on his Telegram account on Wednesday, in which he confirmed that Wagner will be involved in missions other than those in Ukraine in the near future. Before that, he hadn’t appeared in public for weeks.
The Wagner boss was already afraid before the uprising that his role was played out. Prigzohin demanded the departure of Defense Minister Shoigu and army chief Gerasimov. He feared that Putin would sacrifice him at their suggestion and incorporate the Wagner mercenaries into the regular army.
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Comeback Prigozhin in Ukraine cannot be ruled out
Now Prigozhin’s future is uncertain. In any case, he seems to be avoiding harsh retaliation from Putin. According to Russian law, the Wagner boss could go to jail for years, because mercenary armies are banned in Russia. That Wagner was largely paid and directed by the Kremlin would not be an impediment to a show trial. According to the unwritten rules of Putin’s regime, sudden death could strike Prigozhin at any time.
For the time being, Prigozhin seems to realize that it is better to keep quiet for a while. But a comeback in Ukraine is never far away. Bouwmeester: “I don’t rule it out at all. It may not happen in the coming weeks or months, but don’t be surprised if he somehow returns.”
In any case, the mercenary leader seems to have achieved the exact opposite of his goal. According to experts, it has become more unlikely that Defense Minister Shoigu and army chief Gerasimov will step down. It would be another blow to Putin’s authority if he granted insurgent Prigozhin’s demand.
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Putin ‘under pressure’ in his own country
And Putin’s authority has not fared too well since the uprising. Richard Moore, head of Britain’s MI6 intelligence agency, said this week Politico that Putin is “under pressure” domestically for his handling of the Prigozhin issue. “Prigozhin started out as a traitor at breakfast. At dinner he was forgiven and a few days later he was invited to tea,” Moore aptly summed up the situation.
It is also rumbling within the army. Major General Ivan Popov openly criticized the course of events: “While the Ukrainian troops failed to break through our defense lines, a senior commander managed to attack us from behind.” A former Russian intelligence officer wrote that a complete breakup of the military is “just a stone’s throw away”.
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2023-07-20 17:05:00
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