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Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, traveled to New York on April 24 and 25, 2023 to chair the UN Security Council. Indeed, the rotating presidency of the Security Council falls to each member of the Council every fifteen months in accordance with the rules of international law.
On April 3, 2023, it was Russia’s turn to chair the Security Council.
According to the revelations broadcast by the American media NBC, Sergei Lavrov met during his stay in New York three important personalities from the Council of Foreign Affairs. This Think Tank is an independent institute created in 1921 in New York, and whose role is to analyze the foreign policy of the United States and the world political situation.
It is the most influential think tank in the United States in foreign policy, it has 7,000 members, an office in Washington, and publishes a bi-monthly review “Foreign Affairs”.
The personalities who participated in the meeting with Lavrov are Richard Haas Chairman of the Center for Studies of the Council on Foreign Relations, and two other experts from the Think Tank, Charles Kupchan former official of the White House, and Thomas Graham former senior official of the Department of State (Foreign Affairs).
It should be noted that the American participants would have informed the National Security Council of the White House, but not the leaders of the European Union.
According to informed sources, Lavrov and his American interlocutors discussed “a plan to leave the battlefield for the negotiating table”. The assumption foresees negotiations by the end of 2023, due to the approach of the American presidential elections in November 2024. If a Republican candidate wins, the United States could reduce their financial and military commitment to support Ukraine.
On the ground, the Ukrainian counter-offensive is advancing only very slowly, and it seems difficult for the Ukrainian army to be able to liberate all of the territories occupied by Russia in the East and in Crimea.
Also, in order to avoid a stalemate and other human and material losses, the plan calls for a ceasefire that encourages both Russian and Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the front line. It would be created as a “demilitarized zone” controlled by a neutral organization, either the UN (United Nations Organization) or the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe).
The chosen Organization could send observers to monitor and withdraw the military. If the truce is respected, peace talks could open between Russia and Ukraine.
In addition to Lavrov’s meeting with his American interlocutors, direct contacts exist between the United States and Russia in order to examine all the parameters of future negotiations. This is how former Pentagon officials, including former deputy defense secretary Marie Beth Long, carried out secret missions in Moscow.
On the Russian side, contacts with the Americans have been followed by academics, directors of think tanks, or research institutes. The fate of the prisoners on both sides was also discussed.
In conclusion, we cannot welcome the unofficial contacts between the United States and Russia with a view to finding a solution to the war in Ukraine, and the role of independent Think Tanks. This war, which began on February 24, 2022, resulted in considerable human and material losses, including in particular completely destroyed Ukrainian cities. The prolongation of the war will only increase the dead, the wounded, and the destruction.
The impasse lies in the fact that President Zelensky will only accept negotiations after the withdrawal of the Russian army from occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. For his part, President Putin does not agree to cede the territories annexed by Russia to the Donbass and especially the Crimea.
Also, the solution to put an end to this deadly war can only succeed with a compromise between the two belligerents, especially since President Putin has repeatedly threatened to use atomic weapons if necessary, which would lead to a nuclear world war 3. Value today it is impossible to predict when and under what conditions the end of the Ukrainian war will take place.
The NATO Summit scheduled for Vilnius (Lithuania) on July 11 and 12, 2023 will perhaps shed more light on this dramatic conflict.
2023-07-10 16:00:29
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