Guatemala’s Presidential Election Raises Concerns of Fraud and Interference

Bernardo Arevalo, a 64-year-old sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner, has defied expectations by securing a top spot in the first round of Guatemala’s presidential election. Arevalo, the son of former President Juan Jose Arevalo, came in second place with just under 12% of the vote, a significant achievement in a race where no candidate won more than 16% of votes. His success can be attributed to the exclusion of several popular candidates who posed a challenge to the status quo, as well as public discontent with the other candidates, as evidenced by the high number of blank ballots.

However, there are now doubts being cast over the election results, with some denying the legitimacy of the outcome. Even the U.S. government has expressed concerns about possible interference in Guatemala’s presidential election. The election in this small Central American nation, with a population of almost 17 million, could have far-reaching implications for the region, particularly in relation to the United States and its efforts to secure the southern border.

The Biden administration may find itself facing a familiar situation, as it has already dealt with a surge in migration triggered by the fallout of the presidential elections in neighboring Nicaragua. President Daniel Ortega locked up numerous political opponents ahead of the 2021 elections, leading to a significant increase in Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered Nicaraguan migrants nearly 165,000 times in fiscal year 2022.

Arevalo’s appeal lies in his sincerity and academic background, which resonated with young voters. Despite lacking the populist approach of other candidates, Arevalo’s straightforward explanations and absence of slogans or catchy messaging struck a chord with the electorate. In contrast, one of the excluded candidates, conservative businessman Carlos Pineda, had utilized the popular video-sharing app TikTok to gain early popularity.

The vote count in Guatemala has been delayed due to allegations of counting irregularities raised by 10 of the 29 parties that fielded candidates. While independent election monitors found few signs of wrongdoing, Guatemala’s top court agreed to freeze the formal certification of the first-round results. This intervention is seen as a tactic by the establishment factions to cast doubt on the integrity of the vote and buy time to coordinate in case Arevalo, who has promised sweeping anti-corruption reforms, emerges as the winner in the second round.

Guatemala’s Constitutional Court has ordered a review of precincts with contested vote tallies, with a conclusion expected to be reached late this week or early next. Despite the certification delay, it is anticipated that the top two vote-getters from the first round, Arevalo and Sandra Torres, will eventually move forward to compete in a second-round vote scheduled for August 20. Torres, a veteran political operator, is aiming to become Guatemala’s first female leader on her third run for president.

The outcome of the election and any potential undermining of the results could have significant implications for emigration flows and U.S. border policy. More than 220,000 Guatemalans crossed into the U.S. via the Mexico border in 2022, prompting the U.S. and Guatemala to announce a pilot program aimed at managing irregular migration. The Biden administration’s push to restrict migration and asylum seekers is closely tied to the cooperation of countries

What factors contributed to H’s unexpected rise in the Guatemalan presidential race?

H the Guatemalan population. As a sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner, he has been a vocal advocate for social justice and transparency in government. This resonated with a population that has long been plagued by corruption and political instability.

The exclusion of popular candidates and the high number of blank ballots in the election also played a significant role in Arevalo’s success. Many Guatemalans were dissatisfied with the other candidates and saw Arevalo as a fresh and promising alternative. His second-place finish, with nearly 12% of the vote, is a remarkable achievement considering that no candidate won more than 16% of the votes.

However, doubts are now being raised about the legitimacy of the election results. Some have questioned whether there was interference or manipulation in the process, casting a shadow over the outcome. Even the U.S. government has expressed concerns about possible interference, reflecting the seriousness of the situation. Given Guatemala’s proximity to the United States and its efforts to secure its southern border, any political instability in the region could have far-reaching implications.

The Biden administration has already faced a similar situation with the surge in migration triggered by the presidential elections in Nicaragua. President Daniel Ortega’s crackdown on political opponents led to a significant increase in Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. This influx of migrants put a strain on the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, with encounters with Nicaraguan migrants reaching nearly 165,000 times in fiscal year 2022.

With Arevalo’s unexpected rise in the Guatemalan presidential race, the Biden administration may have to grapple with another wave of migration from Central America. The outcome of the election and the subsequent political developments in Guatemala will have important implications for the region and for U.S. immigration policies. Arevalo’s sincerity and academic background have resonated with the Guatemalan population, but the challenges ahead are significant, and the legitimacy of the election results will likely be closely scrutinized.