Guatemala’s Presidential Election: A Battle Against Corruption and Election Deniers

Bernardo Arevalo, a 64-year-old sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner, has defied expectations by securing a top spot in the first round of Guatemala’s presidential election. Arevalo, the son of former President Juan Jose Arevalo, came in second place with just under 12% of the vote, a significant achievement in a race where no candidate won more than 16% of votes. His success can be attributed to the exclusion of several popular candidates who posed a challenge to the status quo, as well as public discontent with the other candidates, as evidenced by the high number of blank ballots.

However, there are now doubts being cast over the election results, with some denying the legitimacy of the outcome. Even the U.S. government has expressed concerns about possible interference in Guatemala’s presidential election. The election in this small Central American nation, with a population of almost 17 million, could have far-reaching implications for the region, particularly in relation to the United States and its efforts to secure the southern border.

The Biden administration may find itself facing a familiar situation, as it has already dealt with a surge in migration triggered by the fallout of the presidential elections in neighboring Nicaragua. President Daniel Ortega locked up numerous political opponents ahead of the 2021 elections, leading to a significant increase in Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered Nicaraguan migrants nearly 165,000 times in fiscal year 2022.

Arevalo’s appeal lies in his sincerity and academic background, which resonated with young voters. Despite lacking the populist approach of other candidates, Arevalo’s straightforward explanations and absence of slogans or catchy messaging struck a chord with the electorate. In contrast, one of the excluded candidates, conservative businessman Carlos Pineda, had utilized the popular video-sharing app TikTok to gain early popularity.

The vote count in Guatemala has been delayed due to allegations of counting irregularities raised by 10 of the 29 parties that fielded candidates. While independent election monitors found few signs of wrongdoing, Guatemala’s top court agreed to freeze the formal certification of the first-round results. This intervention is seen as a tactic by the establishment factions to cast doubt on the integrity of the vote and buy time to coordinate in case Arevalo, who has promised sweeping anti-corruption reforms, emerges as the winner in the second round.

Guatemala’s Constitutional Court has ordered a review of precincts with contested vote tallies, with a conclusion expected to be reached late this week or early next. Despite the certification delay, it is anticipated that the top two vote-getters from the first round, Arevalo and Sandra Torres, will eventually move forward to compete in a second-round vote scheduled for August 20. Torres, a veteran political operator, is aiming to become Guatemala’s first female leader on her third run for president.

The outcome of the election and any potential undermining of the results could have significant implications for emigration flows and U.S. border policy. More than 220,000 Guatemalans crossed into the U.S. via the Mexico border in 2022, and the Biden administration has been working with Guatemala to manage the irregular migration challenge. If the first-round results are undermined, it would pose a grave threat to democracy and could lead to an

How does Nates’ background as a sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner contribute to his appeal among voters tired of corrupt politicians in Guatemala?

Nates with voters who are tired of corrupt politicians. As a sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner, he brings a fresh perspective to the political scene in Guatemala.

His second-place finish in the first round of the presidential election is a remarkable achievement, considering the crowded field and the fact that no candidate received more than 16% of the votes. The exclusion of popular candidates who challenged the status quo and widespread public discontent with the other contenders contributed to his success.

However, doubts have been raised about the legitimacy of the election results. Several sources, including the U.S. government, have expressed concerns about possible interference in Guatemala’s electoral process. The outcome of this election has significant implications, not only for Guatemala but also for the entire region. This is especially crucial for the United States, as it tries to address immigration and secure its southern border.

The Biden administration is no stranger to dealing with migration challenges triggered by political instability in the region. The aftermath of the presidential elections in Nicaragua led to a surge in migration, with many Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered an alarming number of Nicaraguan migrants, approximately 165,000, in the fiscal year 2022.

Considering this precedent, the Biden administration may face a similar situation with Guatemala. It will need to address the underlying issues that force people to leave their home country and seek asylum elsewhere. Arevalo’s victory offers hope to those who want to see positive change in Guatemala and may also alleviate some of the push factors driving migration.

Arevalo’s sincerity and academic background have resonated with voters who are tired of corruption and dishonesty in politics. If elected, he has the potential to bring about real change and tackle the systemic issues that have plagued Guatemala for years. However, the challenges are significant, and there is still a long way to go before his victory can be fully realized. Only time will tell what lies ahead for him and for Guatemala.