Mexico City / 04.07.2023 01:29:47
Alfredo San Juan enlarge
The race for the presidential nomination between the obradorismo and the opposition has become a mirror competition: on both sides there are several pre-candidates, but the fight will be between two finalists, Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard for Morena, Xóchitl Gálvez and Santiago Creel for The front. And also on both sides the great favorite is a woman. As I have pointed out in this space, after a very gruesome panorama, the media explosion of Xóchitl Gálvez suddenly opened hope among the opposition, ahead of the elections in the summer of 2024. I still think that all the odds favor the party in power , for reasons that I have argued before, but I also believe that the presence of Xóchitl offers them a better chance of fighting. The underlying question is whether, in addition to a timely and potentially popular candidate, there is presidential substance in Gálvez; that is, if there is something more than an exploitable biopic and a cheeky verb. These are not the only reasonable doubts about the challenges that this candidacy entails. Here are some:
1. Win the Santiago Creel nomination. When Andrés Manuel López Obrador affirmed that the opposition candidate had already been defined in advance, he was most certainly referring to Creel, the favorite of the PAN leadership, opportunely negotiated with the PRI and the PRD. Until a week ago it seemed like a safe bet. The irruption of Xóchitl Gálvez completely changed this scenario. For months she was the proposal of the group led by Claudio X. González, although with little success against the hermetic control of the partisan bureaucracies. But it was not lost on anyone that Creel would be a weak contender down the stretch against Morena; He, like the other pre-candidates, smelled too much of the old models to which the voter turned his back in 2018. The trigger of a morning denied to Xóchitl was enough to provoke the five minutes of reflectors that he needed. It would be naive to ignore that the resources and media strategies of the groups that support it had to do with the sudden foam that was generated in a matter of hours.
What follows now is to see the response of the alliance parties to this figure that has always been peripheral to them. I have no doubt that in the auscultation in the open sea between Creel and Gálvez, she would come out ahead, but the conditions and requirements that the leaders will have to establish regarding the internal process are still not clear. They could be a mere pretext to make the task difficult for the candidate.
2. Demonstrate that it is more than just a bottarga and a biopic. Undoubtedly, Xóchitl can be a popular candidate in these times when the political scene has become a circus. The triumph of Trump in the United States or Boris Johnson in England made it clear that loquacity and show can be more successful in electoral politics than the solidity or substance of the proposals. For many citizens opposed to the obradorismo, any option is preferable than one more six-year term of the 4T; but they would have to make sure that the medicine does not come out worse than the disease.
There is a lot of social discontent in a country as unequal as ours and serious risks of ungovernability in the face of a presidential administration that collapses. After all, many may disagree with the measures adopted by López Obrador, but it is evident that the management of public accounts has been fundamentally responsible, the peso is stable, there is investment and we have resumed moderate growth. That is, there would be much worse scenarios than this, even for those who have no enthusiasm for the current government. Which brings us to Xóchitl. Putting on a booty and dramatizing his humble origins can generate votes, but in itself does not guarantee that he has the essentials to lead the country’s destinies. And I’m not saying he lacks them; simply to realize that up to now there is very little to write a blank check, not to mention some worrying outbursts in the public appearances of the woman from Hidalgo.
3. The true ideological belonging. In addition to real capacity, the other enigma regarding Xóchitl Gálvez is his ideological and political background. Although she is critical of the 4T government, there are common elements with this current, both because of their social background and because of many of their ideas.
She herself, unlike other opposition candidates, assures that some or many aspects of López Obrador’s social program deserve to be preserved. Time and again she has issued criticisms against privileged groups and it is evident that for some conservative groups she is an awkward figure, to say the least.
Paradoxically, today it would seem to be supported by the private sectors that want to engage in politics to oppose the country’s project promoted by AMLO.
At least on paper, it would be the opposition proposal least akin to a neoliberal current or a political position close to the business right. It is true that she is the candidate with the best profile to grow in the media (because of her past and her populist expressions) or to weaken the “monopoly” discourse of the obradorismo regarding the defense of the poor. But one would have to wonder what conditions could derive from a marriage between a relatively independent candidate of the parties and the big interests that would support her campaign. Who would be using whom? Would it have the capacity to maintain its autonomy or would it end up being an instrument of those agendas?
Finally, a question on the air. Xóchitl was a formidable candidate for the race in Mexico City. She is probably the option with the best odds including the Morena contenders, if we consider the results of 2021 in the capital. In other words, by agreeing to run for president, she sacrificed a high probability of winning the second most important political post in the country (and an automatic presidential candidate for 2030). In return, she plunges into a much weaker bet by aspiring to the National Palace.
For months, quite logically, he refused that invitation; in a bad scenario for her, he would end up empty-handed. What arguments made her reconsider? It is convenient for the opposition to go with a popular candidate, even if they lose, in order to improve the voting for Congress. For her, on the other hand, it would be an abysmal debacle. A miscalculation or reasons that only she knows?
2023-07-04 07:36:54
#Xóchitl #botarga
