The PSOE had to save with the PP the first procedure of its reform of the ‘only yes is yes’ law‘ in the middle of a head-on collision with United We Can the same day that the Government approved a parity law in large companiesand a few days after Pedro Sánchez accused the president of Ferrovial of want to avoid the tax on large fortunes taking the company to Netherlands. Stick and carrot left and right that the socialists can help them plug the important vote leaks that they present less than three months for the municipal and regional elections, and nine months for the pulse of Sánchez with Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Not only because the right is the flank through which the PSOE is losing the greatest amount of support, but also because with PP, Vox y citizens No less than 20 seats (one in six) will be played in the autumn generals, five times more than those that will be disputed with its partner in the Government.
In the November 2019 elections, the PSOE was the party that got the last deputy in 15 constituencies (Albacete, Asturias, Barcelona, Cuenca, Huelva, Huesca, Jaén, Las Palmas, Lleida, Lugo, Murcia, Ourense, Seville, Tarragona and Zaragoza) and the one that got closer to the last seat in another 10 provinces (Cantabria, Ceuta, Córdoba, Illes Balears, Madrid, Navarra, Palencia, Salamanca, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Valencia).
In 20 of these 25 fiefdoms (Albacete, Asturias, Barcelona, Cantabria, Ceuta, Córdoba, Cuenca, Huesca, Illes Balears, Las Palmas, Madrid, Murcia, Navarra, Palencia, Salamanca, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Seville, Tarragona, Valencia and Zaragoza), the socialists fight to maintain or obtain the act with PP, Vox o citizenswhile in only four of them (Huelva, Jaén, Lugo and Ourense) the pulse is with United We Can.
How many votes does the PSOE need to tie up these 20 deputies? If we take as a reference how many ballots the last seat in each constituency obtained and how many the closest candidacy was left without a record, Sánchez needs to add a total of 203,931 votes more than the rights in those 20 territories. The battle for 9 of the 20 parliamentarians is directly with the PP (Albacete, Barcelona, Cantabria, Córdoba, Madrid, Palencia, Salamanca, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Valencia) and its achievement depends, in total, on 84,293 supports in these provinces.
To complicate Sánchez’s challenge a bit more, most of these 20 PSOE battles with the right will take place in provinces that share between 3 and 7 seats, where fewer votes are needed to win a record. The most extreme case is Cuenca. In the last general elections, the Socialists obtained the last of the three deputies from this province and Vox was just barely 200 slips to snatch it away The result in this constituency was two seats for the PSOE and one for the PP, so that if Sánchez lost this deputy next autumn, there would be a triple tie or Feijóo’s victory in this fiefdom. In the Balearic islands the opposite situation occurred: the PSOE was left to 884 votes to take a seat from Vox, which would have broken in favor of the socialists the fourfold tie that occurred in the archipelago.
To win all four direct battles with United We Can (Huelva, Jaén, Lugo and Ourense), the PSOE needs to collect a total of 38,440 votes, half the support that in his fights with the PP and five times fewer ballots than in his fights with the right wing as a whole. The four provinces distribute 4 or 5 seats and in all of them it was the purple ones who were on the verge of snatching the last deputy from those who would later be their partners in the Government. The differences exceeded 10,000 votes in the four territories except in Huelvawhere the socialist advantage was only 218 slips.
The PP accounts are not easy either. In 2019, paul married got the last seat in 20 constituencies (Almería, Badajoz, Burgos, Cantabria, Ciudad Real, Córdoba, Granada, Guadalajara, La Rioja, Madrid, Málaga, Melilla, Palencia, Pontevedra, Salamanca, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Soria, Teruel, Valencia and Valladolid) and stayed the doors of achieving the last deputy in other 11 provinces (Albacete, Álava, Ávila, Barcelona, Cáceres, Castellón, Guipúzcoa, León, Segovia, Vizcaya and Zamora).
The popular ones will be played 18 seats with left-wing parties, half of them with the PSOE, for which he needs to gather 201,319 votes in these fiefdoms, an amount very similar to that required by the PSOE to take deputies from the right. In parallel, Feijóo will play other 11 congressmen with conservative formations and to get them you will need 54,058 votes.
Some twenty seats, those that Sánchez is playing with the right, is also the advantage that most surveys give the PP over the PSOE at this time, including the recent Barometer of Spain from the GESOP for Prensa Ibérica. According to this survey, the sum of PP and Vox oscillates in a range of 168 to 177 deputieswhile the sum of the PSOE with all its current parliamentary partners swings between 172 and 183 representativesTherefore, this bag of seats in contention between the left and the right can be crucial to tip the even balance of governance.
It would seem easier for Sánchez to fight on the left than on the right of the PSOE borders, taking into account that he needs fewer votes to win it. But, is it convenient for the socialists? distance yourself from United We Can in the final stretch of the legislature it has a double advantage. On the one hand, it prevents his purple partner, who has already chained several electoral setbacks since 2019, from bleeding to death and complicating the bobbin lace that will be the future alliances to maintain the government. And in parallel, it allows him to recover support through the center and, thus, stop the main and growing transfer of votes suffered by the party, as confirmed by the latest GESOP survey.
The PSOE meeting 6,792,199 votes in November 2019. According to the aforementioned barometer, nine months before the general elections, 1,467,112 socialist voters would change their ballot, two out of 10. Of them, 1,093,543 voters Those who voted for Sánchez four years ago would now support right-wing formations: 767,518 for the PP; 251,311 to Vox; and 74,714 to Citizens. On the left, the PSOE would lose 312,440 voters: 251,311 would support United We Can and 61,129, Más País.
Despite these leaks, Sánchez holds Feijóo’s pulse because he would attract 2,448,758 voters who abstained in 2019 and why it would recover 540,547 votes (367,186 on the left and 173,361 on the right). All in all, the Socialists would lose three times more support on the right than they would add on the left, to which we must add that 1,575,790 Sánchez voters do not guarantee their support either and declare themselves undecided.
The PP, on the other hand, would recover almost four times as many votes as it would lose. married got 5,047,040 supports in the last elections, of which, according to the GESOP, 585.455 They would now migrate to other fishing grounds: 494,609 to Vox and 90,846 to the PSOE. Some leaks that would more than compensate with the 2,233,079 votes that would fish, in similar proportions, from three parties: 767,518 from the PSOE, 746,023 from Vox and 719,538 from Ciudadanos. And the abstentionists are also an important source for the popular ones: 1,661,657 voters who stayed at home four years ago would choose the PP ballot today. Another factor that favors Feijóo is that he is half as undecided as Sánchez: 792,385 voters of the PP in 2019 are still not clear what they would do now.
#PSOE #play #seats #Sánchez #contesting #losing #million #votes