The general index of the Conference Board rose to 109.7 points in June, that of May being revised slightly upwards to 102.5 against 102.3 points initially.
Consumer confidence in the United States rose again in June, much more than expected, after falling the previous month to its lowest level since November, with current conditions looking better than before, according to the published index. Tuesday by the Conference Board.
The general index rose to 109.7 points, that of May being revised slightly upwards to 102.5 against 102.3 points initially.
This is the highest level reached by the index since January 2022, i.e. before the start of the war in Ukraine.
And the increase is more important than expected, the market having rather anticipated an index at 103.8 points, according to the consensus published by Briefing.com.
“Confidence is strongest among consumers under 35 as well as those earning more than $35,000 a year. Nevertheless, the level of expectations signals that consumers are still expecting a recession in six months to a year”, commented the chief economist of the Conference Board, Dana Peterson, quoted in the press release.
In detail, the index measuring the perception of expectations remains low, at 79.3 points, well below the 80 point mark, synonymous with expected recession and which has not been exceeded since February 2022.
However, this is still a significant increase, compared to 71.5 points in May.
The one measuring current conditions also rose sharply, rising to 155.3 points in June, from 148.9 points the previous month.
“Household sentiment still remains well below the levels seen before the pandemic, worsening under the effect of higher interest rates and inflation that remains high. But the gradual improvement is a positive sign for households and their spending,” HFE chief economist Rubeela Farooqi said in a note.
Consumers’ perception of employment has also improved, after several months of deterioration, with more of them believing that there are “lots of jobs” while those who believe that there are hard to find” are down.
Similarly, more of them expect a drop in inflation – whose expectations will fall to their lowest level since December 2020 – and an improvement in their financial situation in the next six months.
The CPI inflation index slowed sharply in May in the United States, to 4% over one year, its lowest level since March 2021.
The PCE index, which is the one taken into account by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for its interest rate policy, should be published on Friday.
2023-06-27 15:25:55
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