Lebanon’s Political Landscape: Analysis of Recent Developments and Disagreements

Assuming in advance by everyone that today’s session will not witness the election of a president for the republic, and that it is nothing more than a “proof of existence” for each of the candidates’ supporters: the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, and the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, Jihad Azour, who has emerged in the past two days Two important events took place on the local scene in this context: the first was the departure of former MP Walid Jumblatt from Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s presidential choice, and the second was the intensification of the dispute within the Free Patriotic Movement after the announcement of Azour’s support.

The first event was remarkable for its implications and the fact that it overthrew the long years of the solid alliance between the two men in the various circumstances that Lebanon experienced during the days of war and peace, while what today’s session will witness, its outcome is known in advance to all, which is that there will be no president of the republic during it, nor will it be held A second round on the same day due to the loss of the quorum, and that all that will happen is to “prove the presence” of the supporters and to show everyone’s intention that the desire to elect a president exists, but the obstacles still exist.

A prominent media figure familiar with the developments had a different opinion, as she considered that this difference, which cannot be described as a dispute, is merely a prior understanding between Berri and Jumblatt. The media personality explains that this understanding came for several considerations, the most important of which is that the names of the candidates have not settled on these two only, as it is not yet possible to drop the name of the army commander, General Joseph Aoun, from the battle, and it is also possible to agree on another name at a later time if circumstances necessitate it. This means that there is nothing serious in today’s election session, and the position that Jumblatt took falls under the category of Representative Taymour, which Berri fully understands. The media personality adds that Jumblatt does not want the career of his son, who assumed the reins of the party and the legal heir to the Jumblatt family, to start with a clash with the majority Christian forces in and outside the parliament, or to accept that he assumes his new responsibilities under the mantle of the Shiite duo, because of its future repercussions on his presence, in While the relationship with Berri will be considered one of the constants that will not change under any circumstances, Walid Jumblatt knows that moving away from Berri for him and his family is tantamount to “political suicide” that he will not undertake, neither in the short term nor in the long term, and therefore all talk is about disagreement. The difference is just a script to pass the time.

As for the second event, the media personality indicates that the matter is completely different, as the disagreement (and not the disagreement) exists within the movement, and that naming names from within the bloc as candidates for the presidency was a “masterstroke” for the opponents of the movement, who won the bet that the members of the movement did not accept Azour’s candidacy, while There are chances for their colleagues, not to mention that the personality of the person they were asked to nominate does not match the goals they were defending. And the personality confirms that the presence of the former President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, in the meetings and his personal request to vote for Azour, reveals the seriousness of the situation within the ranks of the movement, in addition to what MP Alain Aoun said in terms of distinguishing between the partisan choice of the representatives and the political choice, thus opposing what all currents and political parties are accustomed to. In the history of modern Lebanon.

Accordingly, the image set by the media personality is clear in terms of the relationship between Jumblatt and Berri on the one hand, and the dispute within the corridors of the Free Patriotic Movement on the other hand, with her assertion that Azour may not be the final choice for the movement and other forces rejecting Franjieh’s arrival, and that time is sufficient to resolve it. This puzzle.