The Netherlands’ Support for Ukraine: Heavy Weapons and Future F-16 Delivery

Moldova, June 1. In a room on an upper floor of the Mimi Castle in the village of Bulboaca, Ukrainian President Zelensky is “speed-dating” with Western leaders. Nearly forty European countries are gathered to send a signal to Moscow and Western leaders all want to talk to the petty war president.

In the corner, Zelensky is sitting at a table with his advisers. All in army green, a sharp contrast to the European delegations in suits or suits. Zelensky has just finished with the Portuguese, hugs Prime Minister Costa and walks to the next group. The F-16 coalition is waiting: Prime Minister Rutte, British Prime Minister Sunak, Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen and Belgian Prime Minister De Croo.

Those countries will train Ukrainian pilots for the F-16s. The Danish Prime Minister poses for a photo with Zelensky. But this is more than a photo opportunity. Zelensky and the Prime Ministers look nervously at the television cameras. Will the audio of their conversation be recorded? “No audio”, someone shouts. Cameramen and photographers must leave. The real negotiations about more aid to Ukraine will immediately continue.

Not obvious

This Western support goes further than everyone involved had expected. In February 2022, at the start of the invasion, the West is still reluctant. Although The Hague sends combat helmets, shard vests and a hundred sniper rifles, it is initially hesitant to send heavy weapons.

This article was the result of background discussions with various ministers, politicians, civil servants and diplomats involved. Due to the sensitivity, those involved do not want to be quoted by name.

Even the top of the cabinet is taking into account a ‘small’ variant of the war: that Russian President Putin will only conquer the areas in the Donbass. But it will be a full-blown war against Ukraine. Russian troops are even approaching the capital Kyiv. Then it turns out that Ukraine is holding out and Zelensky is not fleeing. The West is stepping up military support.

And how. The Netherlands sends armored vehicles, tanks, missiles, machine guns and minehunters. What was previously undiscussable or unthinkable, is delivered anyway. The heavy armored howitzers, expensive Patriot missiles, Leopard tanks and soon perhaps F-16 planes – if the United States gives permission. Approval from the US is needed: the country is the manufacturer of the F-16 and this decision can only be taken by European countries in consultation with their most important ally.

A person involved describes how it works: every request starts with a wish from Kyiv. Usually a small group of like-minded countries discuss more support. They then transfer to other countries. The Netherlands is remarkably often in the vanguard.

The heaviest artillery

The first major breakthrough was the delivery of the Armored Howitzers, the heaviest artillery of the Dutch army. Last year there was a top meeting between Kyiv, Berlin and The Hague. The Germans hesitate. Isn’t supplying such heavy weapons a bridge too far? Only when the Netherlands tacks and undertakes to investigate the supply of armored howitzers, does Germany also undertake to examine the supplies.

Support for Ukraine hardly leads to sharp political discussions, if at all. At the top of the cabinet, the most involved ministers have been on the same page for months. Rutte, Hoekstra (Foreign Affairs) and Ollongren (Defense) all believe that Ukraine should be helped in every possible way. That unity is the main driver of Dutch support for Ukraine, say insiders. The three ministers emphasize in countless debates, interviews and press conferences that Putin must be stopped. “If we know one thing from the Second World War, it is that it does not stop at one country if we give in to brutal violence and expansionism,” Rutte said in September. “We know that from Hitler.”

The governing coalition is also mostly on the same page about Ukraine. In the beginning there was doubt whether D66 would continue to support this tough war policy, says a senior cabinet source. It was to be expected that VVD and CDA want more money for defense and are prepared to supply arms. But D66 is now also in favor of rising defense spending. Member of Parliament Sjoerd Sjoerdsma was even one of the first Dutch politicians to advocate sending F-16s to Ukraine.

Washington’s power

Yet the Netherlands does not decide alone. It’s constant tuning. With like-minded European countries, but especially with the most important ally: the United States. For example, the delivery of the tanks was a topic of discussion between Rutte and US President Joe Biden. But especially Rutte’s officials, such as the council adviser on foreign affairs, have short lines with Washington. Ukraine policy comes from the National Security Council, headed by Jake Sullivan, the president’s top adviser.

That is where the course is set and the border guarded: how can the West help Ukraine, without too much escalation towards Russia? For example, the Netherlands has been saying for some time that supplying F-16s is not a taboo, but the American president has so far only given permission for training for Ukrainian pilots.

The small Netherlands cannot enforce or demand anything from the US. But be careful. This is called ‘Gently pushing’. A highly placed source compares The Hague’s strategy to a bluebottle. “Keep buzzing, but stop in time before you… *slap* get knocked flat.”

There is also close consultation with other European countries. Rutte himself switches with German Chancellor Scholz or French President Macron. Due to his years of experience, the influence of the Dutch prime minister is maximum, according to those involved. It improves the position of the Netherlands in the EU and in NATO.

The zeitgeist has also changed in the Netherlands itself: where the first Rutte cabinets made significant cuts to defense, times have changed completely. Even left-wing opposition parties support the billion-dollar investment in the armed forces. The Netherlands is also rising in NATO’s internal ranking, where countries are ranked by their defense expenditure: the Netherlands is on the same level as Spain.

Rutte to NATO?

Internationally, Rutte’s name is regularly tipped as the new Secretary General of NATO. He himself denies and swears that he wants to stay in The Hague. The name of Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen is also mentioned as a possible candidate. It must become a head of government, insiders expect – that means that other potential Dutch candidates such as defense minister Ollongren or former minister and UN envoy Hennis will not make it.

Another option is that the term of the current NATO boss, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, is extended again. Rutte says he would rather teach after his premiership. But even in the Prime Minister’s immediate circle, it is considered inconceivable that someone with his experience on the international stage would never do anything with it.

The future

The West, including the Netherlands, continues to supply arms to Ukraine. Everyone expects that at some point F-16s will be delivered. But no one is saying it out loud, pending approval from US President Biden. For example, the West is becoming increasingly involved in the war in Ukraine.

Will Ukraine and the West continue to cooperate in the fight against Russia? That is one of the main topics at the upcoming NATO summit in Lithuania in early July. Will Ukraine ever become a member of NATO, as agreed in 2008? No concrete plan was ever made for it. Is that plan coming now? And in the meantime, should the West provide security guarantees to Ukraine? There is a lot of discussion behind the scenes, but there is no concrete agreement yet.

No one expects an end to the war in the short term. A peace agreement is a long way off. Last year, diplomats still hoped for a final offensive, so that Kyiv and Moscow would then resort to talks. But hopes for speedy peace have melted away. For the time being, the Netherlands will remain one of the frontrunners in the field of arms and support for Ukraine.