Playing for the Moment vs. Playing for the Future: A Political Analysis of Bulgaria’s Current Situation

With the formation of the regular “Denkov-Gabriel” government, the PP-DB are making the most of the situation and playing for the moment, while the GERB-SDS game is exactly the opposite. They are not playing for the moment, they are not consuming any power, but they are playing for the future, political scientist Dimitar Ganev from “Trend” stated in an interview with BGNES.

“PP-DB clearly realized that if a cabinet with GERB is not formed now, they will have to go to elections, in which the distance between them and Boyko Borisov’s party will increase. They will be in a worse negotiating position and they will have to do what they did now with an even greater compromise and with the participation of a third player, probably,” explained Ganev.

According to him, for this reason, they have made the rational decision to take advantage of their position now rather than their worse position three months from another election.

And if PP-DB are playing for the moment, with GERB the situation is exactly the opposite – they rely on future benefits.

The horizon that GERB can count on is short-term, medium-term and long-term:

The short-term horizon

Boyko Borisov has been dealing with his main political opponent in recent years. It is no secret that the damage to the PP from this coalition, from the leaked records and from the consumption of power will be very serious and no longer threatens the leadership of GERB.

The medium term horizon

GERB remains a major political force in the upcoming local elections without a serious competitor in the currently existing party system. And if the elections in Sofia, Varna and Plovdiv will be difficult for GERB, it will not be so in the rest of the country. GERB remain the only ones on the field – with decent electoral support, strong local structures and no great political power against them.

Long term horizon

With the growth of “Vazrazhdane” by a few more percent, Kostadinov’s party could be dangerously close to the first place. Then GERB can talk about itself as the only political entity capable of stopping “Revival” and keeping Bulgaria in the Euro-Atlantic direction. This is a very desirable position for Borisov – similar to the one he was in for a decade with the BSP, namely – “you may not like me, but look what’s coming if it’s not us”.

He emphasized that the answer to whether the political crisis ended on Tuesday with the vote of the regular government of “Denkov-Gabriel” will be given in a few years.

“At the moment we do not know if we are in an ongoing political crisis, in what stage of this crisis we are. We cannot say if the political crisis is over. But we can say categorically what is over – the year 2020 is over politically. This huge rift that opened the yellow cobblestones in the summer of 2020, ended this Tuesday. Those who protested formed a coalition with those they protested against,” said the political scientist.

The end of this rift in itself is gigantic news. “He predetermined the political process in the last three years. These were the markers – whether you are from the status quo or you are from the change,” Ganev said.