Europeans’ Opinions on Russia, US, and China: ECFR Survey Results

It has already been 15 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. In that time, twice as many Europeans, almost two-thirds, have come to view Moscow as an adversary or rival, but opinions on the continent’s long-term relationship with its eastern neighbor still differ widely.

A multi-country European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) survey also found a large majority in favor of the EU strengthening its defense capabilities rather than relying on the US, and many see China as a partner rather than a competitor.

“Europeans want to see the EU become more independent in foreign policy and build up its own defense capabilities,” said one of the study’s authors, Jana Pulierin, adding that the demands had been “sharpened” by the war and growing relations between the US and China tensions. “This could be a defining moment for the EU. To reconcile differences of opinion within the bloc and shift from its dependence on the US to a position where it can take its own policy positions.”

Some 64% of respondents in the 11 EU member states to the survey said they see Vladimir Putin’s Russia as a competitor (9%) or, worse, an adversary (55%) – double the number who feel likewise when the question was asked in 2021.

However, the share of people who have a strongly negative opinion of Russia varies widely. 74% have a negative attitude in Denmark, 71% in Poland, 70% in Sweden, 67% in the Netherlands and 62% in Germany, down to 37% in Italy and only 17% in Bulgaria.

About 39% of Hungarians and 65% of Bulgarians see Russia as an ally or necessary partner

“Worryingly, Italy falls somewhere in the middle,” the report’s authors wrote. “Other countries fear that Rome will reconsider its pro-Ukraine position.”

A smaller proportion of Europeans – almost half (48%) – said they thought their country should have only “limited” relations with Russia if the war ended with a negotiated peace agreement, such as trade only in certain industries.

Again there was a wide range of opinions, with Poland (39%) most in favor of cutting all ties with Russia, while Germany (26%), Hungary (32%), Austria (36%) and Bulgaria (51%) showed strong support for full post-war cooperation with Russia.

“The prevailing opinion is that Europe should maintain limited relations with Russia,” said the authors of the report, quoted by The Guardian. “Overall, this provides the basis for agreement among the European public… But some controversy seems inevitable.”

The report Keeping America Close, Russia Down, and China Far Away found that the US has largely restored its reputation as a friend and partner of the EU since the previous survey, when responses were heavily influenced by Donald Trump’s presidency.

In 2021, no country saw Washington as an ally “sharing European interests and values”. This year, 32% across the 11 countries think this is the case, ranging from 55% in Denmark to 13% in Bulgaria, while 43% see the US as a necessary partner.

However, there was clear concern about Trump’s possible re-election: 56% thought it would weaken relations with the US. This resulted in strong majority support (74%) for the idea that the EU should look after its own defense rather than rely on the US for security.

A 62% majority across all 11 nations also said their country should stay out of any Taiwan conflict. Less than a quarter say they would like their government to side with the US, with support highest in Sweden, Poland and the Netherlands.

But the report suggests few Europeans are keeping pace with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has called for the bloc to reassess its relationship with Beijing and create a “clear picture of what the risks are”.

Only one in five see Europe’s trade and investment relationship with China as carrying more risks than benefits, with large majorities (43% on average) saying they see Beijing as a necessary partner and would oppose the idea of ​​sanctions.

Although 70% of Europeans recognized China and Russia as partners on the global stage – as evidenced by their “unrestricted” economic partnership announced last February – there was little appetite for “separating” relations with Beijing.