Experts have been pointing out for months that Germany’s problems in 2023 may also weigh on Poland. Germany is our main trading partner, and the condition of our economy largely depends on the demand in this country, which translates into the number of orders sent to Poland.
The latest data from Germany – in the opinion of Pekao analysts – are disturbing because after a disastrous March, there was no recovery in April when it comes to orders in German industry.
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In their opinion, there are also positives in this data. And so, excluding large, one-off orders, their number increased by 1.4 percent. month to month. As Pekao analysts point out, the turnover in the German industry has fallen for the second month in a row, which also bodes poorly for industrial production, which data will be released on Wednesday morning.
Germany at the turn of the year in recession, now the stock market is breaking records
Earlier in May, a revision of the data for the first quarter of 2023 revealed that the German economy had entered a period of technical recession. Germany’s GDP in the first quarter of 2023 shrank by 0.3 percent. quarter to quarter and 0.2 percent Every year. In turn, in the fourth quarter of 2022, a decrease was also recorded (by 0.4% q/q).
Meanwhile, in recent months, it was possible to quickly secure gas supplies by sea, and the winter was record warm. At the same time, Russia is definitely not doing well in Ukraine, and China has unexpectedly abandoned its zero-Covid policy. Inflation in Germany is also falling fast (6.1 percent was recorded in May). Instead of the worst scenario, considered by experts to be quite realistic, so far the very optimistic one is being implemented, which just over half a year ago might have seemed completely improbable.
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2023-06-06 07:42:32
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