Ukraine Launches Great Offensive to Conceal Bahmut’s Failure and Deepen NATO’s Involvement

Ukraine launches a long-awaited offensive
The purpose of concealing Bahmut’s failure is rich
Following the war situation, NATO’s diligence deepens

The Great Ukraine Offensive has begun, or is said to be about to begin. The American media, including the New York Times, are extensively reporting on the impending Great Offensive. In addition to that, the Ukrainian side is raising expectations to the fullest by producing promotional materials for trailers related to the Great Offensive. As such, it is rare to foretell the next move of one’s country during a war. Even if it is possible to assume that a major offensive or a retreat will occur under the circumstances. Then why is Ukraine doing such an unprecedented thing?

First, it is because Bahmut’s failure must be concealed and the public’s eyes must be diverted from it. As I mentioned in my last March column, since Ukraine began to fall behind on Bahmut, Western experts have downplayed the importance of the Battle of Bahmut, arguing that Bahmut has no strategic value. But President Zelensky and the Ukrainian military themselves proved that the Battle of Bakhmut is of great importance in this war. In other words, it was decided not to withdraw from Bahmut, but to defend it to the end. Unfortunately, Ukraine’s determination did not save Bahmut. It was only because of the great sacrifice of the Ukrainian army that was committed to the Battle of Bakhmut. It lost valuable troops that could have been used in other, more important battles.

It was on May 20 that Russia officially recognized the capture of Bakhmut. However, the media is very stingy in reporting Russia’s victory. He also overturned the contents of an interview with President Zelensky, who virtually acknowledged the fall of Bahmut. He denied the capture of Bahmut, claiming that there were Ukrainian troops remaining in Bahmut, saying, “What does it mean to say that one, two, or even a hundred Ukrainian soldiers remain in Bahmut when the battle is completely turned?”

Second, a major offensive could provide a way out for the Ukrainian military leadership, which was burdened by the defeat of Bakhmut. The defeat of Bakhmut may call into question the strategic and tactical judgment of the leadership of the Ukrainian armed forces and the overall combat capability of the Ukrainian armed forces. Given that claims of Bahmut’s lack of strategic importance have come primarily from Western experts, NATO may have decided that it was a better tactic for Ukrainian forces not to focus on Bahmut. It was apparently hardliners within the Ukrainian military who decided to shoot Bahmut. However, they do not want to take responsibility for Bahmut’s defeat. What they can do is to make them believe that Bahmut can be regained at any time by launching a ‘Great Offensive’. At the same time, it constantly shows how brave the Ukrainian army is and how well prepared they are for combat.

On the other hand, the defeat of Bahmut created a very difficult situation for NATO, which fully supports Ukraine. Didn’t the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, from the beginning of this year, widely report that they had decided to support their main tanks in Ukraine, saying that this would be a ‘game changer’? However, until this point in early June, the game hadn’t changed at all. It is unclear how many Western elite tanks were actually used in the Battle of Bahmut. It is a problem even if the newest weapon that was desperately requested was not quickly supplied to the battlefield, and if it was already supplied and lost, that is also a problem. Therefore, the ‘blitzkrieg’ card is also very useful for NATO. This is because saying that a major offensive is imminent sends a message that the real battle using Western weapons has not yet begun.

Reports of an imminent major offensive came at the same time as Ukrainian troops invaded Belgorod, Russia, and drone strikes in Moscow and Belgorod. In fact, since the spring season is almost over and we are entering summer, it is time to start the ‘Summer Offensive’. In particular, NATO countries that continue to provide arms and financial aid to Ukraine will be eagerly awaiting the same achievements that Ukraine has shown since last September. If not, you will be in a situation where you pour water into a bottomless pot, and you will have no choice but to worry about how long to keep pouring water.

Kang Yoon-hee, Professor of Eurasia Department, Kookmin University