The US consumer confidence index released in May by the Conference Board, a US private research institute, fell to the lowest level in six months. Views on the current state of the labor market and outlook for the future business environment deteriorated ahead of the conclusion of the debt ceiling negotiations.
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Upper row: Consumer confidence index, Lower row: Ratio of respondents saying there is enough employment minus those saying it is difficult to get a job
Source: Conference Board
Confidence is still well below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring heightened uncertainty about the economy. The percentage of respondents expecting job growth in six months is the lowest since 2016. The labor market is a mainstay of household spending.
The current situation index deteriorated to 148.6, the lowest level since the beginning of the year. The index of expectations, which reflects the outlook for the next six months, fell slightly. This was affected by the lowest level of responses since 2011 that the business environment will improve.
The poll found the White House and Republicans over the debt ceiling issue.It was implemented by May 22, before an agreement in principle was reached.
“Consumer confidence fell in May as perceptions of the current situation deteriorated slightly and the outlook remains bleak, but the outlook for jobs and incomes six months out,” said Ataman Ozildirim, senior director of economics at The Conference Board. remains firm,” he said.
“Consumers saw a more tangible calm in the labor market in May,” said Eliza Winger, an economist at Bloomberg Economics. “We expect the labor market to soften further, reflecting slowing aggregate demand.”
Regarding the current situation, the gap between those who answered that “employment is sufficient” and those who answered that “it is difficult to find a job” fell to the level not seen since April 2009. Economists look to the gap as an indicator of how tight the labor market is.
However, plans to purchase cars, homes and large appliances have improved, suggesting that consumer spending is resilient.
Inflation expectations one year ahead (median) are almost unchanged. April’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data released on Wednesday showed faster growth in the core price index, which excludes food and energy.
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See table for detailed statistics.
Original title:US Consumer Confidence Declines Ahead of Debt-Ceiling Deal(excerpt)
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2023-05-30 14:08:27
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