Auxerre vs Nantes: The Battle to Avoid Relegation in Ligue 1

Promoted applied, Auxerre holds the rope, but who knows what Nantes, dying, keeps resources? At the bottom of the classification, the 37th and 38th days promise to be breathless between Auxerre (16th, 34 points) and Nantes (17th, 33 points) who fight to avoid 4th and last place in the wagon bound for the League 2, where Troyes (18th), Ajaccio (19th) and Angers (20th) are already installed. Sector by sector, we weighed everyone’s chances at the start of the home straight, seeking the opinion of Rolland Courbis, the RMC Sport consultant – a time anticipated in Nantes in a pair with Stéphane Ziani to take over by Antoine Kombouaré, before the Pierre Aristouy – Oswaldo Vizcarrondo ticket was finally retained for the last four matches.

The calendar

This Saturday, advantage in Auxerre, which moves to Toulouse (13th), while Nantes goes to Lille (5th). Toulouse has been coasting since its triumph in the Coupe de France – against Nantes – and has not won a match, or even scored a goal for a month. On the other hand, Lille, opponent of Nantes, is on the block, because focused on the top 5, and remains on a success in front of OM (2-1).

“I obviously give Auxerre more chances of getting a result in Toulouse than Nantes of getting one in Lille, underlines Courbis. Especially since Lille will recover its two central defenders (Fonte and Djalo), absent against Marseille…”

If by chance Auxerre wins in Toulouse while Nantes is beaten in Lille, the “game” will be folded in favor of AJA. “And I’m afraid that the last day doesn’t count for much anymore…”, risks Courbis.

In any other case, what to expect from Auxerre – Lens on one side and Nantes – Angers on the other, during the 38th and last day, Saturday June 3? Two trompe-l’oeil posters, in the opinion of the consultant… “Auxerre will benefit from a Lens already assured of 2nd place – Editor’s note: Lens receives Ajaccio, 19th, this Saturday. To see the level of Auxerre, in particular its 2nd half against PSG, I would not bet on a victory for Lens for sure… ”

And the Canaries? Will they be able to pick up 3 points at the expense of Angers? Not sure, according to Courbis: “If Nantes returns from Lille having taken an additional hammer blow to the skull, I rather imagine Angers showing their face in recent weeks, less catastrophic than at one time. »

Important detail: Nantes has a goal difference of 8 units higher than that of AJA. But still it is necessary that the Nantes return to equal points to assert this advantage.

The dynamic

The plumage of the Canaries, resplendent at the start of the year with in particular a draw on the lawn of Juventus in C3 (1-1) and 10 points ahead of the relegation zone in L1, is painful to see today. How to keep faith in Nantes who have not known victory in the last 13 games – 14 including the Coupe de France final?

“They’ve had a lot of fights lately and haven’t won one,” Courbis notes. And in this series, they took that right to the chin of the final lost. I am convinced that they are in this situation largely because of this badly placed final (between the 32nd and 33rd day). A final is an event. Winner or loser, you cannot play in the league three days later…”

Since then, no sign of recovery has been perceptible from Loire-Atlantique. “The people of Nantes are simply knocked out,” continues Courbis. At La Beaujoire against Montpellier (0-3) I saw the faces of losers on the close-ups in the stands, during and after the match. The defensive passivity of Nantes on the 3rd Montpellier goal is simply scary. »

For its part, Auxerre is only advancing slowly but is still advancing. Admittedly, AJA have only gleaned 2 points from the last five games, but these included Lille, OM and PSG. In April, she had chained three victories in a row over Troyes, Ajaccio and Nantes.

The experience

In terms of numbers, Nantes, whose group has an average age of 27, shows a maturity greater than that of the promoted, 25 years and 7 months. And above all qualitatively, the Lafont, Pallois, Castelletto, Girotto, Chirivella, Sissoko, Blas, and other Delort are supposed in theory to manage the situation better than the Burgundian captain Birama Touré and his group devoid of stars, with the exception of M’ Baye Niang.

But in such a situation, it is certainly from the bench that the best guarantees come. However, Aristouy, 43, two L1 games, cannot compete with Pélissier, author of four L1 stays, two with Amiens (2018 and 2019) and two with Lorient (2021 and 2022). “There is a huge difference between a Pélissier who knows what a rescue operation is, a real profession in the profession, totally different, and a young person like Aristouy, a future very good coach, believes Courbis. In this case, it is not a gift that was given to him… ”