“The Complex Situation Surrounding Armenia’s Relinquishment of Artsakh”

Armenian-populated Artsakh, it should be recalled, declared itself an independent state during the collapse of the USSR and has never hidden its desire to unite with Armenia. During the so-called first Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenian forces were also able to occupy significant areas outside their historical territories, and this situation existed until 2020, when the second Nagorno-Karabakh war began, during which Armenian forces suffered a significant defeat, losing essentially all lands , with the exception of historical Artsakh, where Russian forces (officially – Russian peacekeepers) were brought in, whose mandate expires after less than three years.

The situation has been further complicated all these years by the fact that Artsakh is not simply a separate territory, but a part of historical Armenia, as well as a land with an impressive role in Armenian culture and history. For this reason, Pashinyan’s open declaration of readiness to give up Artsakh (that the processes are moving in this direction was already visible after the defeat of Armenia, although Pashinyan previously avoided speaking so openly) has caused a storm of indignation in the self-proclaimed republic, whose leadership has announced that such a decision will not be accepted and is ready to defend herself with weapons in her hands.

Pashinyan’s relinquishment of Artsakh allows him to realize the goal that the Armenian Prime Minister has been pursuing for basically all the years he has been in power – to remove Yerevan from Russia’s sphere of influence. If there is no conflict with Azerbaijan (and Turkey behind it) over Artsakh, Armenia’s relations with its neighbors are at least theoretically normalized, and accordingly there is no need for the presence of Russian forces in the country. For Russia, the need to withdraw forces from Armenia in turn means an almost complete loss of influence in the Caucasus.

It is another matter that written and officially approved guarantees have never had any special value in the mentioned region and that it is not clear what Moscow’s future actions will be. Accordingly, it is possible that instead of the peace bought at the price of Artsakh, a third war over Nagorno-Karabakh, even more ambitious than the previous two, may hit Armenia.