It would take a disaster scenario for that to happen, but the specter of relegation is not completely ruled out.
Let’s say it clearly to the most pessimistic who already see Amiens SC in National: despite their only 3 points ahead of the red zone, it is highly more likely that the Amiens club will still be in L2 next season. According to probabilities calculated by Fabien Torrelecturer in computer science at the University of Lille-3, the risk of descent for the ASC is only 1,7%. It is even almost zero (0,2%) as soon as the Picards would have the good idea to take a point over the past two days.
On the other hand, if we consider a new succession of defeats – it would not be the first time, the Amiens have already chained 4 losses twice this season – the percentage of risk of falling on the lower floor would still increase to 18,3%. A hypothesis now to be taken into account, even if, let us remember, this leaves, opposite, 81.7% chance of sustaining.
What makes this scenario, however, not very credibleit is not so much the impossibility of seeing this or that unfavorable result for the Samarians come true as seeing them all happen at the same time, even though 5 teams still have to pass them to condemn them. Thus, it would be necessary that 5 of the 6 following events occur in addition to two Amiens defeats:
- Rodez draw at least one against Pau or Bordeaux
- Laval draw at least against Nîmes
- Annecy wins a match against Bordeaux or Paris, or draws two matches
- Valenciennes wins a match against Grenoble or Saint-Étienne, or draws two matches
- Dijon wins a match against Paris or Le Havre
- Pau wins a match against Rodez or Caen
In short, if the pitiful defeat against Caen and even the surprising Valenciennes victory against the leader Le Havre on Monday are enough to instil doubt in people’s minds, and even a little fear, the situation of Amiens SC is far from hopeless. A good point for discourse against pessimism on which Patrice Descamps insists.
Morgan Chaumier
Photo credit: Kevin Devigne – Gazette Sports
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