“China Challenges Russia’s Natural Allies in International Relations: Expert Analysis”

China is trying to pry off Russia’s natural allies. That is what professor of international relations Rob de Wijk says in BNR’s Boekestijn en De Wijk. “The summit that China organized with a number of former Soviet republics was most remarkable.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping received the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan last week – countries normally regarded as natural allies of Russia. ‘And they are now being pulled away from the Russian sphere of influence by China,’ says De Wijk. ‘Although those countries are also looking at the European Union. But it is really very special what is happening.’

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De Wijk states that the invested top can cause frowns in the Kremlin. All the more so because China shows that the friendship with Russia may be less close than initially assumed. “You just don’t do that, but it does happen here.”

‘No allies’

Arend-Jan Boekestijn calls it an impressive event, because it concerns Russia’s sphere of influence. ‘That is actually no longer possible, so China immediately jumps in,’ says Boekestijn. And China doesn’t really have any allies. They are the superior culture and they consider themselves exceptional – more so than Americans do. And so they cheat the Russians.’

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Although De Wijk thinks that the Chinese are also afraid that the Russian empire will fall apart. Something that has to do with the way Russia is actually surrounded by opponents. ‘In our part of Europe you have NATO, which invests in the defense departments and new members,’ explains De Wijk. “North of Russia there is a receding ice sea, which poses a risk, in Japan they have a problem with the Kuril Islands, and in the south the former Soviet republics seem to be a problem.”

‘Territorial security’

According to De Wijk, Russia’s territorial security is woven into the Russian DNA, as is responding in terms of military power. ‘And that is currently not really possible, so there will be a reaction,’ says De Wijk. “With very large investments in their defense, which they then cannot afford.”

This incompetence is entirely due to the state of the Russian economy, he believes, which is no greater than that of the Benelux. In addition, the Russians have to contend with a shrinking population. ‘And that is how the Soviet Union collapsed,’ he concludes. “And I see the same pattern emerging now. That does not mean that the Russian Federation will collapse tomorrow, but if it collapses, it will be because of overinvestment in defense.”