There is an old saying that says that “when march maya, mayo march”. A way of predicting that, when it has been very hot during the first bars of spring, it is possible that you will have to take out your warm clothes again later, in May, when summer normally begins to show its first signs of life.
Although popular wisdom in regards to meteorology has numerous sayings and proverbs, it should be kept in mind that they are not always true. Otherwise, one as helpful as “April, thousand waters” would have contributed to the month in which we are alleviating one of the most severe droughts of the last times.
Unfortunately it has not been so. During the first half of April, they have barely accumulated 3 liters of water per square meter in the whole of Spain. It is not just that it is a much lower amount than usual this month, it is that it is extremely little. Until now, the driest April on record is that of 1995, when 23 liters per square meter fell throughout the month. We are worse than ever.
Having seen what has been seen, all hopes are placed in the month of May. Is it to be expected that a lot will fall more water than usual on those dates and, therefore, that the water appeases the drought? Would that help save many of the crops that have already failed or reduce the risk of fires, more extreme than ever?
a warm quarter
Although making predictions with such a margin is always complex, everything indicates that a May is not coming especially rainy. Quite the contrary. According to the European Center for Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, for its acronym in English), it is most likely that the quarter May-June-July looks like it will be warmer than normal. Although it is not known what will happen with the precipitations, nothing seems to indicate that we are going to have rains intense enough to change things in a substantial way.
What is a measurable fact and can serve as a reference is the last month of May. And it’s not exactly hopeful: 2022 was the least rainy May in 70 years, and the fourth hottest since 1947. And the summer was even worse, since it was the warmest ever recorded in Spain: the temperature was 2.2ºC above average, far exceeding, by 0.4ºC, what until then had been the warmest summer, that of the year 2003.
Does all this mean that we have to fall into discouragement and catastrophism? Not necessarily. Perhaps the smartest thing to do is learn from what is happening, take note that climate change is already a reality and begin to implement measures that go in a completely different direction from those that have been implemented up to now. It’s time to take action.
#expect #exceptionally #rainy
