“China and the United States hold 10-hour talks in Vienna: What’s next for the two superpowers?”

From May 10 to 11 local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, met with Sullivan, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs of the United States, in Vienna, Austria. For nearly 10 hours in two consecutive days, this meeting touched the nerves of the whole world. Jin Canrong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, said in an interview with “Zhejiang Daily” newspaper group financial media platform “Chao News” that the high-level officials of China and the United States are meeting at this moment, which means that the two sides are actively making diplomatic arrangements around the world in recent days, and now it is almost done. You have to get in touch, sit down and talk.

On May 12, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated at a press conference that the two sides had a candid, in-depth, substantive, and constructive discussion on promoting Sino-US relations to remove obstacles, stop falling and stabilize. Both sides agreed to continue to make good use of this strategic communication channel. Wang Wenbin also emphasized that the United States cannot talk about communication on the one hand, but on the other hand continue to suppress and contain China. It cannot say one thing and do another. China urges the United States to correct its perception of China, respect China’s bottom line and red line, and meet China halfway.

Why did China and the US choose to hold such a high-level meeting at a neutral location in a third country? Jin Canrong said that frankly speaking, this arrangement reflects that the current Sino-US relations are not very good, and both sides are reluctant to go to each other’s country, so they found a third party. It shows that in a sense, the relationship between the two countries is in a deadlock.

In addition, since the U.S. Air Force shot down a Chinese high-altitude reconnaissance balloon in February this year, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken postponed his visit to China. Why did the high-level Chinese and U.S. leaders choose to meet at this point in time?

Jin Canrong analyzed that some time ago, the high-level exchanges between China and the United States were interrupted, and at the same time, the diplomatic layout of the two sides did not rest at all. The outside world refers to this period of Chinese diplomacy as the “golden season”. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Russia, and the surrounding diplomacy has been consolidated. Afterwards, relations with major countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa are being strengthened. At the same time, relations with countries represented by France Old Europe is approaching, and has become more friendly with African countries. In addition, China is also actively participating in the resolution of some hot-spot issues. The most successful is to promote the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and it has begun to do some preliminary mediation work on the Russia-Ukraine war.

Jin Canrong pointed out that at the same time, the United States is not idle. It is promoting the Asia-Pacificization of NATO, allowing NATO to set up an office in Japan. It is also encouraging Japan to change its “defense-only” policy and win over South Korea, the Philippines, and India. The two sides are actively making diplomatic arrangements, and now that the deployment is almost complete, it is time to get in touch and sit down for a chat.

The outside world is curious, what achievements have been made in the meeting between Wang Yi and Sullivan?

Jin Canrong believes that the Sino-US meeting in Vienna is a preparation for the resumption of high-level dialogues and even dialogues between heads of state in the future. Since it is preparation, it is tantamount to a preparatory meeting for a formal meeting, and it is a bit difficult for you to produce results. According to foreign media reports, some things have been shelved, such as the “reconnaissance balloon” issue that has been raging before, and let it pass. It is also possible that the US side will make some promises, such as not adding new trade sanctions for a period of time, so as not to worsen the atmosphere of dialogue.

Jin Canrong believes that the general feeling is that the United States has an urgent need to resume high-level dialogue, so it is now spreading rumors through various channels, hoping to resume. It would be impolite for China to simply refuse, and morality is very important when dealing with major powers. Now senior diplomatic officials of the two countries are holding a preparatory meeting. As long as there is a certain commitment, it will be considered fruitful. The subsequent specific results need to be discussed one by one. For example, fiscal issues, monetary policy, trade policy, etc., have specific departments to discuss.

As for the words “honesty,” “substantial,” “constructive,” and “in-depth” that Wang Wenbin mentioned, how should the outside world understand them?

Jin Canrong said that conventionally speaking, the “candor” mentioned by the US means that the positions of the two sides are relatively open and there is no cover-up; the “substantial” refers to very important issues. To which step; “constructive” means that we can continue to talk about it. The Chinese side also added “in-depth”. According to his understanding, the two sides may have a more thorough disclosure than expected, and it is not just a taste.

The outside world is concerned. At present, what is the biggest obstacle to the normalization of official exchanges between China and the United States?

Jin Canrong pointed out that the evaluation of the atmosphere of this meeting is acceptable from both sides, so logically speaking, there is a possibility of resumption of other high-level dialogues. Whether to recover or not depends on some conditions. The most important thing is that what you say means what you say, and you cannot go back on your word. For example, if the two parties promised to meet each other, but something happened to the United States, that would not work.

Jin Canrong said that China’s reluctance to engage in high-level dialogue during this period is because the credibility of the United States is now in question. Just imagine, if I finally took the time, made full preparations, and reached a consensus with you, you would regret it and slap yourself in the face when you go back. For example, the Ministry of Commerce had a good talk with Dai Qi, but when she went back, she was slapped in the face by a policy issued by another US department. How do you explain this?

“So this is a big problem. China’s lack of trust in the high-level US side is well-founded.” Jin Canrong said, because although the Biden administration is the ruling authority and is responsible for maintaining Sino-US relations, the Biden administration seems to be manipulating The overall political situation in the United States is very weak. He can’t control the Congress, the opposition party, or many interest groups. “This is very troublesome. I regard you as your commander-in-chief, but you are always in command of the people below. We are coordinated here, and we are very serious about the promise I made. In the end, you took the promise as a Child’s play, this is a big problem.”

Jin Canrong said that generally speaking, the meeting was valuable and the atmosphere was good. It is possible to resume high-level dialogues in other channels, but whether it can be resumed and to what extent depends on the situation. A key situation now is that all departments in the United States are hostile to China, and the center responsible for coordination, that is, the president and the executive department, are not capable enough, and they always go back and forth, which makes the Chinese side feel that this dialogue seems meaningless.

Jin Canrong said, “So, to ensure that China-US high-level dialogue can be fully resumed, I think we still have to listen to his words and watch his actions.”