Gold Analysis: Inflation Data and the US Debt Ceiling Crisis

When the previous article was published, prices were trading at the level of 1985… and the road map was clear to both the buyer and the seller… and the price levels were really decisive and important since then until now.

What after yesterday’s inflation data?

Data released yesterday showed that annual inflation in the US fell to 4.9%, down from 5.0%.
· This decline and when entering into the details, it appears that energy prices were the clearest driver of this decline… with the contribution of used cars and trucks to a lesser degree in the decline in inflation.
· As for the rest of the details, it is clear that they have witnessed a clear increase.. that is, inflation is actually rising for the American consumer in his daily life.. with the exception of energy, which has decreased.. and with the exception of the prices of used cars, which the consumer certainly does not buy frequently.
· In addition to changing the method of calculating inflation, which now compares prices for one year only, instead of the previous method, which compared two years.
Here we are not talking about a conspiracy theory or manipulation in reading at all. Rather, economic decision-makers certainly know these details.. and will not consider it an achievement or a victory that would allow them to lower interest rates, at least in the near future.

The US debt ceiling crisis:

– Both parties are still throwing the ball into the court of the other party… accusing it of obstructing raising the debt ceiling.
– But it is clear from the above picture that this time the markets are more worried and tense than the previous times, which is why the cost of insurance against default in America has increased.

– In the first official statement issued today by Janet Yellen, in which she referred to the possibility of relying on Constitutional Amendment No. 14, it seems that it contributed to alleviating the anxiety that was present in the markets.. That is, there is at least a legal way out for not defaulting on payments.
– However, she also indicated that she does not consider it a strategy in the short term .. and said that it may lead to “a very significant contraction.”

What about today’s inflation data?

The CPI data released yesterday is generally the most important for the markets.
· However, the estimated data clearly show expectations of significant increases compared to the previous reading.. If this significant increase occurs, it may have an actual impact on the markets similar to the impact of yesterday, and perhaps greater than it.
Because this means a discrepancy in the data between yesterday and today. It also means that the rise in producer prices may be reflected in a rise in prices in general.. which means a rise in consumer prices later.
The rise in readings means that the Federal Reserve will not start reducing interest rates in the near future either, which means positive for the dollar and negative for the [والعكس صحيح إن صدرت البيانات بانخفاض مفاجئ].

Technically gold:

– It can be seen that prices tested the price level between 2048 and 2053 on more than one occasion, and clearly maintained its stability below it until now.

– Also on the monthly frame, it can be seen that prices made three tests for the same price peak, slightly below or above the level of 2075… as these three peaks were in order: Corona peak – the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis – as for the third, there is no main reason that can be relied upon on him [يمكن القول أنها مزيج من أزمة سقف الدين، تلميح الفيدرالي لوقف رفع أسعار الفائدة، والأرجح أنها لعبة من ألعاب صناع السوق الذين استغلوا ضعف السيولة مع الافتتاح واستهدفوا أكبر قدر ممكن من أوامر وقف الخسارة وتفعيل أوامر الشراء المعلقة .. وإذا كنت لا تؤمن بألعاب صناع السوق أدعوك لقراءة مقال ” تلاعب صناع السوق بالأسعار .. خرافة أم حقيقة؟”

– أما على الإطار الزمني لأربع ساعات .. يبدو واضحا أيضا من الرسم البياني أن الأسعار اختبرت المحور السلبي في أكثر من مرة، ووحدها محاولة الاختبار بالأمس نجحت في اختراق هذا المحور لكن بذيل الشمعة فقط.
– وحتى بالعودة لبداية تداولات هذا الشهرنلاحظ أن الأسعار تحترم هذا المحور السلبي بشكل كبير [والذي يمثل تقريبا مستوى 2038] As when it settled above it was testing it and bouncing up from it.
– Until I broke it with a large candle last Friday after the release of the labor market data..which is also a technical indication that this level is working properly.
– The pivot point for today’s trading is at the level of 2030.
– Major Support Levels 2019 | 2006 | 1993
– Key Resistance Levels 2044 | 2057 | 2073
– Taking into account the minor resistance level, which represents the negative pivot level 2038.

The bottom line
1- Gold has so far been trying to hold on and maintain its price gains in a way that can be described as the last dance…and it has to decide its fate in the near future.
2- Which reacted negatively yesterday, clearer and broader than gold.. It is still negatively stable so far below the level of 25.0 until the moment of writing this article.. This gives an additional indication, perhaps, that negativity may appear more clearly at a later time.
3- To confirm the negativity, prices must break the 2013 level. Hence, the next price target in the near future is the 1973 level.
4- Currently, we are in an occasional area closer to negativity.. For the continuation of negativity, prices must maintain their stability below the price range 2038-2044, which is what prices are currently doing perfectly so far.
5- The alternative scenario is a breach of 2044. This leads prices to test the main resistance levels mentioned above.
6- In order to always be clear, as we are used to together in articles or tweets, gold is for sale from the current level [لحظة كتابة المقال] 2038 .. stop loss 2043
7- If the stop loss is targeted, we will go back to selling again, with prices returning to break the 2038 level, with the same stop loss level 2043.

8- This market is volatile and may be right or wrong.. It is possible for profit and loss.. Yesterday we were successful in selling gold, as soon as prices returned to breaking the 2038 level, and the deal was exited at the 2024 level… We ask God Almighty to be successful today as well and every day.
9- If you think that gold is suitable for buying, then all opinions are respected, dear… But personally, I advise you to exit the purchase trades and stop the loss at the 2019 level or at the maximum level of 2013… provided that you return to buy later when prices return to breach the 2038 level.

We will follow up with you on price fluctuations in upcoming articles, and for more rapid and continuous updates, you can follow
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Reminder in the margins of the article:
. Trading markets always fluctuate in their directions, and depend on a lot of data and news, in addition to major banks and market makers who often direct the market, even contrary to reality and logic sometimes.
. The opinions and ideas above are the summary of the analysis, and they are not direct recommendations, but rather advice for followers, bearing in mind that no one is able to profit continuously from trading operations, even large investors.
. Therefore, we always strive to reduce losses and increase profits in accordance with the analysis and point of view of the method of price trading, by applying many methods of analysis combined and intersecting to try to reach the best results.
. We have diligence, and God is the Grantor of success.