Leaders from Southeast Asia met in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia, on 11 May to resolve the crisis in Myanmar, which has worsened since its military seized power in a coup on 1 February. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has urged the Myanmar junta to implement a “five-point peace consensus” agreed in late 2020, which includes ending all hostilities and engaging all stakeholders. ASEAN barred the generals from attending high-level meetings until progress is made. As chair of ASEAN this year, Indonesia has also been quietly engaging Myanmar’s military, shadow government and armed ethnic groups to kick-start peace talks.
However, frustrations have increased in the bloc over the junta’s failure to end the violence and ensure safe humanitarian access. Tensions escalated as unidentified assailants shot at a convoy carrying ASEAN diplomats and aid workers delivering supplies in western Myanmar.
Despite urging Myanmar to implement the five-point peace consensus, ASEAN has been criticised for espousing a policy of non-intervention in the members’ sovereignty, which has been seen as a failure to take a harder stance against Myanmar.
The schism over Myanmar is presenting an “unprecedented challenge” to ASEAN’s unity, warned former Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa. For the first time ASEAN has been “short-circuited” because Myanmar’s military leadership is not participating.
Leaders meeting in Labuan Bajo are expected to discuss other issues, including a code of conduct being negotiated with China over the disputed South China Sea, and a roadmap for East Timor’s planned membership in the bloc.
Southeast Asia’s response to the worsening situation in Myanmar has been compared unfavourably with the way the continent addressed crises in other countries, such as Timor-Leste or Cambodia. Some analysts suggest that ASEAN’s reluctance to intervene may be because its member states are or have been military dictatorships, or have undergone civil wars, or face separatist movements.
The situation in Myanmar is worsening with increasing fears of civil war. Myanmar has been in turmoil for over four months, following the coup by the military, which ousted the elected government and arrested its leaders, including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The military used brutal force to quell protests, killing hundreds of demonstrators, while many more were arrested and detained.
The violence in Myanmar has led to international condemnation, and the UN has accused the junta of committing crimes against humanity. The UN special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, has said the country is likely headed towards a failed state, where both the military and the opposition will lose – the former because it will face international isolation and the latter because it will be outmanoeuvred by the generals.
