Via NUjij we asked you questions for defense expert Ko Colijn about the war in Ukraine. Read his answers in this article.
Rusland
Lezer: Is de Russische bevolking nog steeds (grotendeels) onwetend of begint de waarheid zo langzamerhand toch door te druppelen?
Helaas, de Russische bevolking is in meerderheid nog gehersenspoeld, en dus vóór de Russische invasie in Oekraïne. De steun neemt wel af. Poetin durft nog niet alle beschikbare militairen op te roepen. Dat wijst op problemen bij de werving, maar ook op vrees voor protesten.
Ook uit andere maatregelen omtrent beveiliging en propaganda blijkt dat het Kremlin een meer kritische publieke opinie vreest. De lijkenzakken komen steeds vaker thuis. Repressie en strakke propaganda houden de protesten beperkt.
Wie geld heeft, vlucht het land uit. Dat hebben waarschijnlijk al 150.000 Russen gedaan. Dat zijn mensen die een redelijk goed leven en inkomen hadden.
Ontvang meldingen bij belangrijk nieuws over de oorlog in Oekraïne
Mariet: Isn’t it possible to kill Putin? And is that wise?
Who should do that then? Ukraine doesn’t have much interest in it now. First, there is still support for the war in Russia, so it would probably help those in favor of a hard line. Second, it is unclear how Russia would respond.
A Ukrainian victory on the battlefield would yield more and weaken Putin internally. I think a resistance from Russian society is a bit more likely, but I don’t see any indications for that yet.
Reader: Previously the Russians had the most stamina, but with the use of old tanks and ammunition I think they are now seriously lacking. Is this correct or incorrect?
That’s right, I think. At the Victory parade, today on Red Square in Moscow, even the T-34 tank was displayed. It dates from 1934. At the same parade last year we saw much more modern stuff passing by.
Only conscripts paraded on Red Square, the ‘real’ soldiers are too much needed at the front. There is also a lack of ammunition. The Russians prefer to use cheap stuff from Iran and North Korea rather than their own ammunition.
Spring Offensive
Joep: Does Ukraine have the means to realize a spring offensive?
That’s hard to say, because secrecy and surprise are important factors. Ukraine probes Russian defense with pinpricks. But the Russians probably won’t be surprised again like last summer at Kharkiv.
The British would like to deliver cruise missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. If Ukraine gets it, it would make sense to start the spring offensive at Melitopol. From there, Crimea, the Donetsk basin and the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia can be held at gunpoint. If if if, yes.
Harry: If Ukraine is successful in the spring offensive and breaks through Russian lines, will Russia feel compelled to deploy nuclear weapons?
I don’t think Russia dares. But there are plans for when that happens. A nuclear weapon would not necessarily provoke an atomic response, but the genie is out of the bottle.
I suspect (but am not sure) that Putin is also afraid of it. It’s about the only thing he agreed with Biden on June 16, 2021. Putin also understands that no one can win a nuclear war. A little irresponsible behavior is part of the deterrence logic.
Negotiations and mediation
Jan: Is there anything to be said about a tipping point in the war?
If there is a tipping point in the war, I think three are conceivable. Scenario 1: A Ukrainian offensive that succeeds in the coming months. Scenario 2: Putin leaves the field or is even eliminated.
Scenario 3: there will be a diplomatic compromise, whether or not after Chinese mediation. That agreement would then resemble the ceasefire on the Korean peninsula, with Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
Gerrit: Would Kyiv be willing to compromise where the territories lost in 2014 go to Russia? And how does the US view it?
No. I keep insisting – perhaps stubbornly – that Ukraine is mainly about Crimea. The US advises that it should mainly concern the naval port of Sevastopol.
In the US, a compromise is taken into account at the negotiating table. The Americans give Ukraine weapons to achieve fairly modest goals and take their own safety into account.
Washington is not at all keen on a war with Russia. This was already apparent last year with the delivery of heavy weapons, and now the American refusal to deliver F-16s.
Warfare
Paul: Why don’t we let hackers constantly attack Russia’s systems? Or is that already happening?
Presumably hacking attacks are already taking place back and forth. If only to explore where each other’s red lines lie in this area.
Attempts are also being made to disrupt communication lines and weapon systems. For example, the Russians are trying to disrupt the HIMARS artillery and mislead the anti-missile systems in Ukraine.
The advantage of digital attacks is that they are often anonymous, in contrast to ‘old-fashioned’ military attacks.
Reader: Can Ukraine paralyze Russian logistics with attacks on oil depots and other infrastructure within Russia?
Shutting down Russia in this way is unfeasible. But the military significance is there. Ukraine is making Russia nervous by exposing weaknesses in Russian air defenses. They also prove that any place in Russia can be a target of a drone put together by Ukrainian.
Reader: Are there independent military observers in the war zones?
This is occasionally done by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine. They are not present in Russia.
2023-05-09 17:57:00
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