“Oil Prices Fall Ahead of US Inflation Data, Short-Term Look at $71.22”

On Tuesday (May 9), international oil prices fell by more than 1%, partly giving up the overnight gains of more than 2%, with a short-term view of $71.22. Investors were cautious ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data for April. This will be a key reference indicator for the Fed’s next interest rate decision.

At 16:01 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 1.04% to $72.40/barrel; ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.96% to $76.25/barrel.

Suvro Sarkar, chief energy analyst at DBS Bank, said: “Oil prices have rebounded in the past two sessions, so it is time to pause … There is no real positive data coming out. The market is cautious today ahead of the inflation data. …with net long positions falling sharply over the past two weeks, many traders have exited the market, so trading volumes are low.”

U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for April will be released on Wednesday (May 10). U.S. consumers said in March they expected inflation to be slightly lower a year from now, according to a report from the New York Fed on Monday. The Fed may have led the final rate hike of this tightening cycle last week. It dropped guidance on the need for future rate hikes as inflationary pressures began to ease.

CMC Markets analyst Leon Li said: “If tomorrow’s CPI data is in line with the market consensus – maintained at around 5%, and the core CPI does not fall sharply, it is likely to continue to support the rise in oil prices.”

Oil prices rose on Friday and Monday despite sharp losses in the oil market last week, as recession fears eased in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, and some traders see crude’s third straight week on demand worries. Sliding too far.

Also supporting oil prices, the Canadian province of Alberta declared a state of emergency over the weekend in response to wildfires that displaced nearly 30,000 people and prompted energy producers to shut in at least 280,000 bpd of oil equivalent – more than 3% of Canada’s output .

On the daily chart, NYMEX crude oil encountered resistance at $73.57, and may fall back to $71.22 in the short term. They are the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend range from $83.53 to $63.64.