“60% of Dutch Voters Hope Government Falls This Year: Latest Poll Results”

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BBB almost twice as large as VVD

This week’s poll by Peil.nl differs little from that of two weeks ago. BBB’s lead over VVD has narrowed slightly, but the difference is still very large (17 seats). Compared to the elections more than two years ago, the government coalition has been halved. And a real path to recovery is not so obvious.

It is interesting to compare the voter’s current voting preference with the choice made in the Provincial Council elections almost two months ago. The difference is partly due to the fact that the elections were different (Provincial Council versus House of Representatives). Partly because voters change preferences.

If the voting intention in the House of Representatives elections is compared to the voting behavior in PS2023, then we see the following overview of the share that indicates that it will vote for the same party. Almost three quarters indicate that they still make the same choice.

The low score of the SP is remarkable. While that party only just won 4% in the parliamentary elections, it is clear that this electorate is not a hard supporter of that party either. FVD, which achieved 3%, has the most loyal following at the moment.

If we look at what those who do not take the same side indicate, this is the overview:

Half of those who voted YES21 or PVV and now name another party now choose BBB. That loss is compensated by the fact that 3% of BBB voters now indicate that they vote YES21 or PVV.

Between PvdA and GroenLinks we see an exchange of approximately 4% of the PS2023 voters of those parties.

Half of the VVD voters, who now name another party, now have a preference for BBB.

Future government

When asked what they hope for with regard to the term of office of the cabinet, 60% indicate that they hope that the cabinet will resign this year. Only among the current voters of the coalition and among the voters of Volt and GroenLinks does a minority want that.

However, if the same graph is made, but compared to the vote choice in the 2021 parliamentary elections, we will see different figures:

It is clear to see that voters of the government parties from 2021 are significantly less enthusiastic about the government than those who still vote for a government party:

• Of the CDA voters from 2021, 63% hope that the government will resign this year, while 37% of those who still vote for the CDA now. This means that almost everyone who chose CDA in 2021 and no longer wants the cabinet to resign this year.
• Of the D66 voters from 2021, 33% hope that the government will resign this year, while of the current voters it is 5%. Because D66 has now lost more than half of its 2021 voters, it can also be concluded from this that the vast majority of the 2021 D66 voters, who no longer vote for D66, want the cabinet to resign.
• Of the VVD voters from 2021, 42% want the cabinet to resign, of the VVD voters from 2023 this is 21%.
• Of the ChristenUnie voters from 2021, 45% want the cabinet to resign, of the Christenunie voters from 2023 this is 30%.

In an indirect way, these figures also show how problematic the electoral position is of the four government parties, while they are part of this government. Together they have lost half of their following since March 2021 and it is unclear how they can regain a significant part of it. (And that is not even taking into account the chance that Pieter Omtzigt will participate in the parliamentary elections. Although his profit will mainly come from voters who do not vote for government parties, he also reduces the potential of voters for those government parties).