“Ukraine Prepares Powerful Counter-Offensive to Regain Russian-Occupied Territories: Deutsche Welle”

Photo: BGNES/EPA

Ukraine is preparing a powerful counter-offensive to regain the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. The better Kiev prepares for the decisive battle, the better its chances of success will be.

Highway in Poland, near the border with Ukraine. A convoy of about a dozen military vehicles is coming from Ukraine. “I saw them recently going in the opposite direction,” says a taxi driver. “They were carrying tanks. Very large tanks.”

Ukraine will need these tanks in the coming weeks and months. The Ukrainian army is completing its preparations for the expected counteroffensive, which was announced a few months ago, writes Roman Goncharenko for “Deutsche Vele“. It should become a turning point for the winter trench battles and drive Russia away from the occupied territories. This could be a decisive moment. Liberation.

Defense of Bakhmut – a way to buy time?

Anyone who visits Kiev now will feel what a calm before a storm means. Russian shelling like the one on April 28 is now rare. The capital seems calm. And yet – war lurks around every corner. Coffins of those who fell in the fighting are lined up on the Maidan, and posters calling for volunteers in the army hang on the buildings.

A particularly large number of soldiers died in Bakhmut. The city has been an arena of fierce fighting for months now and is almost entirely under the control of the Russians. But the Ukrainian defense does not give up – the explanation is that this is how the other nearby cities are also defended. But Kiev wants to trap Russian forces in Bakhmut to buy time to prepare its counteroffensive. That is why the Ukrainian army suffered many defeats and put up with them.

Andriy and Maximus (their names have been changed) also fought at Bakhmut. Now they are in Kiev – they finally have time to rest. “I hope it was worth it,” Andriy says of Bakhmut’s decision to defend himself at all costs. He himself is not sure if it is. Maxim says that the Russian troops outnumbered them, and that his unit was poorly prepared and had insufficient ammunition. From the counter-offensive, the two expect “the occupied territories will finally be liberated”.

It takes time to develop the offensive

The counter-offensive is constantly discussed in the Ukrainian media, but the representatives of the country’s armed forces do not issue anything. All questions get the “Wait and see” answer. There are many reasons for this. For example, that not all Western weapons that were expected have arrived. Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has received very heavy armaments – German and British battle tanks, combat vehicles, the American Patriot system and Soviet fighter jets.

According to the calculations of the Ukrainian online edition “Ukrainska Pravda”, the army and the national guard have created at least 16 new brigades for the offensive – so the total number of soldiers is 50 thousand. These new brigades need time to prepare – including getting familiar with the new weapons. An additional challenge is the coordinated deployment of many units – a large-scale offensive. Ukraine has little experience in this regard. According to experts in Kiev, the possible scenarios were played out by computers.

Weather conditions are still unfavorable. The rain has made many rural roads impassable for heavy military equipment. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers should wait until the trees have leafed out, which will provide better camouflage. It will take a few more days until enough dry and green vegetation appears.

Crimea is a strategic target

Where, when and how Ukraine will strike is one of the most closely guarded secrets at the moment. It is likely to bet on at least two lines of attack. In the fall of 2022, the army took action near Kharkiv and Kherson – and they were successful.

In his only feature article to date, in September 2022, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Valery Salushniy, only sketchily outlined what such a Ukrainian counter-offensive might look like. He spoke of “several consecutive, ideally simultaneous counterattacks.” Salushniy also mentions Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, as a strategically important target. This is the main direction in which Ukraine is likely to try to advance, everyone in Kyiv says. Surprises and tricks can also be expected. However, many doubt that Ukraine will be able to conquer the peninsula. There are not enough forces and technologies for this.

The main line of attack has long been believed to be the Zaporozhye region in southern Ukraine. From there, Ukrainian forces want to advance to Crimea to cut off the Russian military from land supplies. If this works, it will be a great success for Kyiv, they say. It will not be easy because Russia has built several lines of defense. Also, this time – unlike Kharkiv or Kherson – Russia is likely to respond with counterattacks, which is one of the risks of the Ukrainian offensive.

A counteroffensive is unlikely to end the war

Still, the mood in Kiev is cautiously optimistic. “This offensive cannot fail at all, more territories will be liberated,” says one military expert. “The only question is at what cost.” This cost is what soldier Andriy sees every time he looks at the contact list on his cell phone: “Many comrades have fallen. I can’t find the strength to delete their numbers.”

There is also the question of what will happen after the counteroffensive. Some fear that if it falls far short of expectations, the West could push Ukraine into negotiations and painful concessions. The military leadership spoke out clearly against this. “That’s not going to happen,” says Andrii. He and many in Kiev assume the war will be long and unlikely to end even after the counteroffensive. So he hopes for more convoys of heavy military equipment from the West.