“Lebanese Presidential Election: French Pragmatism and Saudi Obstacles”

Claire Shukr wrote in “Nidaa Al-Watan”:

With a lot of pragmatism, which is not desirable in some respects, Paris is going through the Lebanese presidential election. You measure it with standards that seem unacceptable to a large segment of the Lebanese, Christians in particular. At times, it relies in its equations on the rules of barter, which may lack the reform guarantees that are supposed to be the ABC of salvation… and at other times it resorts to the Lebanese work kit, which has been proven to be obsolete, and is no longer useful in a time of collapse and delayed explosion, as if it seeks, for example, to Passing the election of Suleiman Franjieh from the hole of the Saudi position, to confirm him as president, and after that for every recent incident. Or rather, he works after that to secure the guarantee of the steadfastness of his era, economically, financially and socially.

Until now, Paris is still convinced that Suleiman Franjieh is the only option available and possible for him to assume the presidency. There are no practical alternatives that would convince the French administration that there is an opportunity available to other Maronites, as long as the Shiite duo, specifically “Hezbollah,” sticks to the candidacy of its ally, the head of the “Marada Movement,” and as long as the Christians do not agree on a competing candidate capable of shuffling the cards and confusing them. others.

Some of those familiar with the French position say that Paris has not turned off its engines, but is still betting on a breach in the wall of the Saudi position, which, in their view, has moved from the square of closing the door in front of Franjieh, to the square of discussion about the guarantees that the latter brought to Paris. And this development, the French saw as a green light to move forward with the Franjieh presidency project, even if the Saudi position did not evolve from no objection to welcome.

According to those familiar with the French position, it is enough for the Saudis not to raise their red card, in order for them to persevere in strengthening Franjieh’s chances and pushing forward towards improving his electoral status, so that he will be in Baabda Palace as soon as possible, while they are working in parallel to prepare for an international conference that will be similar to the previous Sidr conferences, which ended To a catastrophic failure, conditioned on the approval of the new government and parliament the package of reforms required from the International Monetary Fund. They add that the bet is on the climate of appeasement that prevails in the region, which may make Lebanon immune from regional conflicts, thus mitigating the flames of external developments from the new era… provided that Saudi Arabia’s partnership, or its blessing, remains conditional on its ruling on the performance and behavior of the new era, in restoring the experience A scenario of Saad Hariri presenting his understanding with General Michel Aoun. In this sense, these insiders believe that the French have not abandoned the Franjieh presidency project, relying on the window that opened in the wall of the kingdom’s position, which is only intended to develop into no objection, nothing more. It is most likely that this window is what prompted the head of the Forces Party, Samir Geagea, to raise the ceiling of the position of objection high, for his fear of Franjieh entering the palace, through this window, knowing that the ball is still in the court of the Christian forces.

However, this breach, according to those who follow the Saudi position, is still inexhaustible in the Lebanese presidential market. They say that Saudi officials told some Lebanese that there is a misinterpretation of the Saudi position on the part of the French administration, and that the lifting of barriers in front of the Franjieh project does not mean that it is now within meters of the palace. Indeed, Saudi Arabia is still sticking to its position on the set of specifications previously presented by Saudi Ambassador Walid Al-Bukhari on more than one occasion. The latter is supposed to be in Beirut at the end of the week to begin his internal tour.

More than that, they add that the Saudis did not pick up, according to those accompanying their position, any indication from the Iranians that the time for the Lebanese presidency had come, or that they were in the process of approaching them about this file, and therefore the urgency to liquefy the French impulse to an integrated initiative or Saudi approval might secure The arrival of Franjieh’s election has some exaggeration that does not reflect field realities. They return to the experience of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati with Saudi Arabia, to judge in advance the guarantees that were provided to the Kingdom, in a negative way. They say that Mikati did everything in his power to lift the iron obstacles that Saudi Arabia placed in his face, but he did not succeed, to confirm that the essence of the crisis, and therefore the Lebanese-Saudi bilateral relationship, is still somewhere else, and it is difficult for those guarantees to deal with it. It is also difficult to bet on the time to change Saudi Arabia’s position on Lebanon. Even some information indicates that the open channels between Saudi officials and officials from “Hezbollah”, which took place through meetings hosted by Iraq, did not produce positive results that would remove the obstacles to Saudi Arabia’s conviction of the choice of the leader of the “Marada Movement”, to be an actual partner in the cooking of his presidency.

However, the insiders confirm that Saudi Arabia is wary of acting with the logic of obstructing the presidential file in Lebanon, and is also wary of putting sticks in the wheels of the relentless French attempt to achieve the merit. Paris may succeed in persuading Riyadh to be satisfied with its non-objection to the election of Franjieh, so that the work will move to the interior to secure the quorum and then the majority of 65 votes. But who will guarantee Lebanon’s assistance in getting it out of its predicament if the Syrian reconstruction project, which some rely on to support Lebanon financially, is still far from being realized and if Europe is mired in its own wars and crises?