You asked for it, and now it’s back: the analysis of the remaining program of the Bundesliga teams. Which team has the toughest draw for the last six game days of the season and which is doing quite well? Answers to these questions can be found in this article.
Unlike last year, the championship has not yet been decided at this point, so there is still plenty of excitement. FC Bayern are just two points ahead of pursuers Borussia Dortmund with six games to go. The questions are also exciting: Who will make it to the European places, and above all: Who will be relegated? A lot can still happen at the bottom.
But how good are the chances of Hertha BSC, bottom of the league (two points behind the relegation place), for example, to come down from the direct relegation places in the last few games? What is the program of the competitors? Schalke, Stuttgart, Bochum, but also Augsburg, Hoffenheim, Bremen and Cologne are not out of the danger zone.
You can find out here how difficult the remaining program of the Bundesliga clubs is and how many points they will still score according to our model!
model background
For the evaluation of the opponent strength we have a so-called for the league Elo-Rating created.
All teams start the season on the same score (1500 points). For each game, the winner gets points, the loser gives up the same amount. How many points that is is always decided by the playing strength of both teams before kick-off: If a team goes into the game as the clear favorite and wins as expected, it only gets a few points. If a team can defeat a strong opponent, it is rewarded with many points.
In the end, this results in a value for the strength of each team Elo rating. The average strength of the remaining opponents is then used to evaluate the rest of the program, which is shown in the graphic below.
From matchday 29: Schalke with the hardest remaining program – Bayern with the easiest
Graphic: Hardness of the rest of the program for each team in the Bundesliga from match days 29 to 34. Five stars mean an easy rest of the program, zero stars a difficult one.
But we don’t just want to evaluate the rest of the program itself, we also calculate how many points the individual teams still get according to our model. What is not taken into account in the rest of the program is your own strength. Mainz, for example, has a difficult rest of the program, but plays well themselves. This means that Rheinhessen will still get their points.
relegation battle
Make it Hertha BSC (18th place, 22 points) to leave the relegation zone or at least jump to the relegation place? The answer is yes, it is entirely possible! The Berliners have one of the better remaining programs, meeting four clubs in Bremen, Stuttgart, Cologne and Bochum that are beatable. Schalke (17th place, 24 points), on the other hand, needs a miracle to be able to call themselves a first division team in the coming season. The Gelsenkircheners have by far the worst remaining program in the league. With the exception of the Werder game, it is only against European contenders. Stuttgart (16th place, 24 points), already on the upswing after the dismissal of Labbadia, has the best remaining program after Bayern. So there is great hope of preventing the descent. Bochum (15th place, 27 points), three points ahead of the relegation place, has a worse prospect than Stuttgart. Augsburg (14th place, 29 points) and Hoffenheim (13th place, 29 points) meanwhile/already have a small cushion of five points on 16th place. Both have a mediocre remaining program. The same applies to Bremen (12th place, 32 points) and Köln (11th place, 32 points), but who still have a better number of points. Another three in the final stages should probably be enough for both to hold the class.
LigaInsider forecast: Schalke (according to our model they only get 4.13 points) go down to the 2nd Bundesliga as bottom of the table. Hertha BSC (plus 6.01 points) didn’t quite make it in the end either, finishing the league in 17th place. Things get really tight between Stuttgart (up 7.81 points) and Bochum (up 5.55 points), but in the end Stuttgart has to be relegated. Bochum stays in!
However, there is one limitation: our model does not yet take into account a possible coaching effect at Hertha BSC!
International ranks
The two championship candidates Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are dealt with separately in the next paragraph. The first pursuer Union Berlin (3rd place, 52 points) will most likely not be up there due to his five points behind BVB (and seven behind Bayern). But can they stay in the Champions League ranks? Things are looking pretty good in that regard. The iron have the third best remaining program. For Leipzig (4th place, 51 points), however, things are not looking so rosy. Due to the remaining games against Bayern, Freiburg and Leverkusen, the Red Bulls only have a moderate program until the end of the season. So the chance for Freiburg (5th place, 50 points)? Well, the people of Breisgau have the same worries as Leipzig… Whether that’s why Leverkusen (6th place, 44 points) can get a place in the Champions League again? Possible… The team is in good form at the moment, is in the Europa League semi-finals and also has the fourth-best rest of the program. For Frankfurt (7th place, 42 points), Mainz (8th place, 42 points) and Wolfsburg (9th place, 40 points) given the form Leverkusen are in, it’s probably just about seventh place in the table. Frankfurt and Wolfsburg have a remaining program of the same weight, which in itself, however, is quite optimistic. Mainz, on the other hand, still have a hard time waiting (the second most difficult programme).
LigaInsider forecast: Leipzig (plus 11 points) pushes past Union to 3rd place. But the Berliners (plus 8.76 points) manage to stay in the Champions League places! Freiburg (up 7.68 points) ended up in 5th place, Leverkusen (up 11.1 points) slightly behind in 6th place. Provided that Stuttgart does not win the DFB Cup, Frankfurt (plus 9.88 points) can still look forward to the Conference League in the end. Wolfsburg (plus 10.6 points) and Mainz (plus 8.03 points) just barely manage that.
championship race
So now perhaps the most exciting question: Who will be German champion? Will Bayern meet again at Munich’s Marienplatz? Or will Dortmund manage the feat of dethroning the southern Germans?
When looking at the rest of the program, some BVB supporters could get scared and anxious at first. Bayern (1st place, 59 points) has the best remaining program of all clubs! With Hertha, Bremen, Schalke and Cologne there are still four supposedly easy tasks. Mainz and Leipzig could be dangerous.
Dortmund (2nd place, 57 points) doesn’t have a bad rest of the program either, but they still have Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and Mainz as opponents, all of whom are still at stake in Europe. Otherwise Bochum, Augsburg and Gladbach are waiting for Borussia.
LigaInsider forecast: Even if we have to disappoint parts of football in Germany: Yes, Bayern (plus 13.8 points) are champions for the eleventh time in a row. Dortmund (plus 11.4 points) has to admit defeat again.
The predicted end table
Changes to the current table: Leipzig pass Union, Wolfsburg Mainz, Augsburg Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC Schalke.
The rest of the program in detail
- Bayern: Mainz, Hertha, Bremen, Schalke, Leipzig, Cologne
- Dortmund: Frankfurt, Bochum, Wolfsburg, Gladbach, Augsburg, Mainz
- Leverkusen: Leipzig, Union, Cologne, Stuttgart, Gladbach, Bochum
- Leipzig: Leverkusen, Hoffenheim, Freiburg, Bremen, Bavaria, Schalke
- Union: Gladbach, Leverkusen, Augsburg, Freiburg, Hoffenheim, Bremen
- Freiburg: Schalke, Cologne, Leipzig, Union, Wolfsburg, Frankfurt
- Köln: Hoffenheim, Freiburg, Leverkusen, Hertha, Bremen, Bavaria
- Mainz: Bayern, Wolfsburg, Schalke, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Dortmund
- Hoffenheim: Cologne, Leipzig, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg, Union, Stuttgart
- Gladbach: Union, Stuttgart, Bochum, Dortmund, Leverkusen, Augsburg
- Frankfurt: Dortmund, Augsburg, Hoffenheim, Mainz, Schalke, Freiburg
- Wolfsburg: Bochum, Mainz, Dortmund, Hoffenheim, Freiburg, Hertha
- Bochum: Wolfsburg, Dortmund, Gladbach, Augsburg, Hertha, Leverkusen
- Augsburg: Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Union, Bochum, Dortmund, Gladbach
- Stuttgart: Augsburg, Gladbach, Hertha, Leverkusen, Mainz, Hoffenheim
- Hertha: Bremen, Bavaria, Stuttgart, Cologne, Bochum, Wolfsburg
- Schalke: Freiburg, Bremen, Mainz, Bavaria, Frankfurt, Leipzig
- Bremen: Hertha, Schalke, Bayern, Leipzig, Cologne, Union
