The formation of a grand coalition for the 2024 Indonesian presidential election is unlikely after the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle officially endorsed a candidate, according to political analysts. The coalition led by the Great Indonesia Movement Party would require the backing of the PDI-P, but their candidate Ganjar Pranowo’s endorsement has created division. The slim margin between the popularity of Pranowo and rival candidate Prabowo Subianto means either could become the candidate, so a grand coalition may only occur if either gains a significant lead, or if the PDI-P becomes the lead party in the coalition.

The likelihood of a grand coalition formed by five Indonesian political parties for the 2024 presidential election is fading after the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) formally announced Ganjar Pranowo as a firm candidate. While politicians across parties have publicly voiced support for Ganjar, Prabowo Subianto and his Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) are the engine for the grand coalition, which will also involve the Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN), and the National Awakening Party (PKB). However, political analysts suggest that the division between the two candidates is likely to make the five-party coalition elusive. While the PDI-P controls more seats in the House of Representatives than any other party and will never back down on Ganjar’s candidacy, recent polls indicate that Ganjar and Prabowo are on the razor-thin margin of support, meaning that the latter remains a candidate with a promising prospect. Prabowo may agree to abandon his presidential ambition and allow the PDI-P to join the grand coalition with Ganjar becoming the candidate, according to Yunarto Wijaya, the executive director of political research firm Charta Politika.