“French Politicians’ Popularity on Twitter: A Year After the Presidential Elections”

One year after the first round of the presidential elections, we are updating our popularity study through a very simple analysis of the progression of followers on Twitter of the main French women and men politicians already present on the front of the stage in 2022.

The basics of the approach

Twitter is decried. However, even if we see a sharp drop in engagement when you are an average user, the fact remains that the social media taken over by Elon Musk has in a way replaced AFP! Each personality develops its own almost essential communication channel to disseminate its announcements, its press releases, its news.

There would be nearly 13 million active French users each month on Twitter. Admittedly, seniors are under-represented there, but these numbers in the millions make Twitter a popular social media.

By way of illustration, Kylian Mbappé saw his audience increase in one year by more than 4.6 million followers ! There is no doubt that the 12.2 million French and foreign people who follow him belong to all categories of the population, to all age groups!

Studying the audiences of the candidates for the hook TV show “The Voice” makes it possible to determine the winners with a fair chance of success (since it is the public’s vote that takes precedence). So rather than reading more or less oriented polls, let’s take a look at the progress and number of Twitter followers of the main politicians. We will start with the “missing persons”, by the “big league” then will sweep the political field from left to right and will end with a zoom shot on the only referenced liberal, David Lisnard.

The missing

Montebourg, Taubira, Barnier… so many personalities who are lined up in the cars.

Unsurprisingly, they each lose a few thousand followers. Hidalgo is progressing but minimally… These consistent results confirm the soundness of the approach we used.

Big league: Mélenchon has not said his last word…

In the very closed club of more than two million followers (where we find Sarkozy with 2.36 million followers and Holland with 2.32 million) Mélenchon finally progresses more than Le Pen (9.2% against 7.8%).

Marine Le Pen remains the most followed political figure behind Macron. Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, benefits from his presidential status and most likely from the momentum of the 2022 election. His 15.6% increase earns him 1.25 million followers. Note that this progression certainly does not focus on followers only French given its international stature.

…like the far left

Sandrine Rousseau, the political revelation of the year 2022, continues to progress. Second in the ranking in progress, it is approaching 120,000 subscribers. François Ruffin is also strong. With 34.6% growth (fourth highest growth), the dolphin of Mélenchon is now close to 400,000 followers.

Alexis Corbière continues on his way and progresses by an honorable rate of 28.4% (165,433 followers). We should also mention MP Mathilde Panot, who was not on the panel last year. She already has 179,500 subscribers. France’s youngest deputy, Louis Boyard, already benefits from 194,800 followers.

Agit-prop and heavy-handed language therefore seem to be working. The 2022 legislative elections and the pension reform sequence partly explain these good scores. If the presidential elections took place today, we would have to count on the hard left.

Where did the PS company go?

PS heavyweights are featherweights on Twitter.

The ephemeral Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve holds 232,745 followers. Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the PS, peaks at 127,785 followers. With 23,099, its unfortunate competitor Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol still has a long way to go… In short, the PS is clinically dead on Twitter.

Presidential majority: Édouard Philippe near the top of the basket

Nothing to brag about the progress of the former Prime Minister (4.9%). However, like a turtle, Philippe is only 55,000 away from the one million mark. followers. The Edouard Philippe brand is well known. His alopecia (autoimmune disease) makes him touching. It stands out as a product of great electoral consumption.

Recent surveys (Ifop-Fiducial Le Figaro Magazine of 7/04/23) confirm that Bruno Le Maire is the most “bankable” minister in the government. With 18% of voting intentions in the first round, he does less well than Édouard Philippe (26%) but much better than Darmanin (11%). We find this trend in our barometer. The Mayor is growing by more than 10% and will very soon cross the 700,000 mark followers. He is now ahead of the old road François Bayrou, with his 681127 followers.

Gérald Darmanin passes for a follower of his master Sarkozy with media stunts and movement. Its progression of 26.8% is honorable and allows it to approach the 400,000 mark.

And the other ministers?

These ministers were not followed in previous barometers. The status of spokesperson and former Minister of Health in times of epidemic benefits Olivier Véran (487,364 followers).

Dupond-Moretti benefits from his loudmouth star status (244,690). Gabriel Attal, although very media-friendly, remains relatively little followed (147,354). Would it be too smooth? Very media during the pension reform sequence, Olivier Dussault modestly reaches only 59,443.

The Republicans breaststroke cast version

The accession of Eric Ciotti to the presidency of LR suggested a nice progression. Admittedly, he is not treading water with his 16.8% but he remains in league 2 with barely 263,000 followers. We can even anticipate that he is entering a false flat phase given the lack of clarity of his positions on pension reform.

Laurent Wauquiez has chosen to take some distance. Camping on his regional positions, he plays the future providential man who, far from the spotlight, goes to meet deep France or makes targeted trips abroad. All this is skilfully orchestrated and put into images to be broadcast on social media. Result ? Missed ! An insignificant increase of 4.3%. He is still missing more than 120,000 followers to be in the club of more than 500,000. What to worry about its positioning? Anyone who doesn’t rub shoulders with flashes, the news or the mainstream media, doesn’t exist.

Note that Valérie Pécresse does not completely disappear from the radar. Her status as regional president allows her to earn a few followers with a modest but real increase of 3.8%. The solid senator Bruno Retailleau retains a strong lack of notoriety. Admittedly, it has increased by 17.3%, but with only 106,342, it remains poorly ranked.

Xavier Bertrand is not recovering from his failure in the Primary. This is the flat encephalogram (+1.8%).

On the far right: Bardella big winner of the barometer

We showed it in our previous barometer, the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine had marked a halt to the spectacular progress made by the former journalist since the summer of 2021. Obviously Éric Zemmour does not still not printing. We will see in the coming months if thanks to his latest book his return to the spotlight produces effects. But this is not the case at the moment. Its progression is limited to 5.4% and it remains in the second division, barely above the 400,000 mark.

His assistant Marion Maréchal is doing better with an increase of 13.8% and 533,697 followers. Arguments that could lean in his favor to take the lead in the Reconquest list in the European elections.

Note that Dupont-Aignan, however discreet, increased by 26.7% to 390,892 followers. The Di Vizio anti-pass, still very offensive, remains very visible on Twitter (on the podium of progressions at 43.2% which allows it to reach 278,127 followers) even if the covid is no longer relevant. To a lesser extent, Philippot also achieved an honorable score (+10.1%).

And the overall winner in terms of dynamics is… Jordan Bardella, who has almost doubled his number of subscribers and thus recorded the strongest progression in this ranking. His accession to the party presidency was more successful for him than for Ciotti. If he continues at this pace, Bardella will gradually settle into the category of heavyweights in the French political landscape.

Lisnard, the still long road to staritude

This will delight the Liberals, David Lisnard is dynamic. He is in the top 5 for percentage increases (32.6%). The result of a serious journey, of growing media coverage. But with only 109,750 followers he remains very far from the top seeds.

What to advise him if he wants to pass the 500,000 mark and then reach the peaks by 2027? Health, education system, issuance of identity papers, police & justice… It’s “shit in France” to use the title of a song by Jacques Dutronc dating from 1984. On these subjects, David Lisnard must certainly continue to plow the intellectual field: forums and why not publication of essays, but he must deliver muscular interventions, identifiable and understandable by a very large public (which he had done during the attack on an elderly woman by a minor at Cannes last September).

Choose the themes for which simple and liberal solutions exist. Be disgressive in your communication by trying to strike a chord with popular media (TPMP in particular). Make short video capsules to then rebroadcast on social media the most striking moments of his interventions. Certainly, the ambitious president of the association of Mayors of France is probably biding his time and avoids exposing himself too much for the moment. But beyond the circle of « early adopters » notoriety « mass market » takes time to build. You have to let go of the blows over time, caution is not in order.