Government – ​​Armed groups: how far will the discord go?

Posted on 04.14.2023 at 09:11 by Mohamed Kenouvi

The overflight of Kidal, in the middle of last week, by planes of the Malian army has exacerbated the tensions between various signatories of the Agreement for peace and reconciliation in Mali resulting from the process of Algiers. While international mediation is trying to find a way to resume dialogue, the Malian government and the signatory armed groups are sticking to their guns.

What would have happened on April 5, 2023 if, from the skies of northern Mali, the air force had responded to warning shots from fighters from the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA) in the direction of planes of hunters who flew at low altitude, according to several sources, certain northern cities including Kidal? In any case, it did not take more for the ex-rebels to cry out for a “patent violation of the ceasefire of May 23, 2014 and a serious provocation carried out under the eyes of the international community, guarantor of the security arrangements and the Peace Agreement”.

To this thinly veiled accusation, the authorities of the Transition have so far officially not reacted. According to our information, they do not wish to communicate for the time being on this situation. Our attempts with the Directorate of Information and Public Relations of the Armed Forces (Dirpa) for more information on the overflight operation and the resources mobilized were unsuccessful.

Resumption of fighting?

The Peace and Reconciliation Agreement itself has been shaky for months. In December 2022, the representatives of the signatory armed groups, gathered within the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-CSD) suspended their participation in the mechanisms for its implementation.

The various attempts at international mediation (Meeting in Kidal with armed groups, meeting of armed groups in Algiers with the Algerian President, mediation meeting in Bamako with all the parties, etc.) for the various signatory parties to resume dialogue obviously did not bear fruit.

In this context, the recent “incident” in Kidal has some observers fearing a new rise in temperature between the government of Mali and the armed movements, without excluding a rise in tensions leading to a resumption of armed fighting between the two camps near a decade after the end of the confrontations. On April 6, on social networks, photos of anti-aircraft weapons in the hands of the signatory movements circulated during the celebration of the unilateral “independence” of Azawad. A response, some say, to the flyover.

But, according to Dr. Aly Tounkara, specialist in security issues in the Sahel, such a scenario is unlikely. “When we look for three months on both sides at the various statements that have been made here and there, everything suggests that secessionist tendencies could hardly be triggered again, in view of the interest, despite these actions, that the two parties show vis-à-vis the beginnings of calm that the Agreement has nevertheless been able to establish between them for years”.

Save the deal

International mediation, responsible for monitoring the Agreement since its signing in 2015, is trying to save it. Moreover, the transitional government has always reiterated its attachment and its commitment to an “intelligent” implementation of the Agreement. Even if they do not seem to agree on the same priorities as the authorities, the signatory armed groups, for their part, also remain willing to move towards its implementation.

But neither party has yet reacted to the new “concrete proposals” that the international mediation indicated it had made to them, in a press release dated April 9, 2023. “We are studying and we consult on these proposals before responding to them”, told us a source within the armed groups who did not wish to detail the proposals in question.

However, according to some sources, it would be, among other things, the operationalization of the ad hoc Commission on the chain of command of the reconstituted forces, the start of the DDR operation on a first batch of 13,000 ex- combatants and updating security arrangements on the ceasefire. International mediation wants to move quickly. According to our information, she plans to meet the government on April 17, before broadening the discussions to the signatory armed groups a week later, from the 24th.