Since the beginning of April, the American forces have carried out 3 raids targeting leaders of the “ISIS” organization in Syria, and although these operations have become a “prevailing custom” since the latter lost its areas of control in the country, they seemed remarkable during the past days from the point of view of frequency, and the reasons that necessitated To take orders for killing or arrest.
And while two operations resulted in the killing of two ISIS leaders, the US forces were able, during one operation, on April 12, to arrest Hudhaifa al-Yemeni, responsible for facilitating offensive operations in the organization, and two of his assistants, according to a statement by the US Central Command (US Central Command). Centcom).
The last of the raids was on Monday night, when Centcom announced the targeting of a prominent ISIS leader in a raid it launched in northern Syria. It said he was responsible for planning attacks for the organization in the Middle East and Europe, and suggested that “he was killed.”
It is noteworthy that the phrase “responsibility for planning to carry out attacks in the Middle East and Europe” was also associated with the Yemeni who was arrested by US forces, and after him Khaled Iyad Ahmed al-Jubouri, who was killed in a strike by the Washington-led coalition in northwestern Syria, on the third of April.
Therefore, observers believe that the context in which the US raids come at the present time may appear to be more variable than before, as it affects leaders and planners of attacks outside the borders, and not only inside Syria.
“secret movement”
In Syria, where ISIS cells are active, the Syrian desert is its main stronghold, yet there is a spread of it in the north and east of the country under the influence of the “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF) and in the north-west where the opposition factions control, in addition to other areas of control. The Syrian regime in the south.
It is not clear who the leaders of the first row of “ISIS” are, as well as the leaders of the second row, while experts in the affairs of extremist groups considered to “Al-Hurra” website that the series and recent strikes were the reason for the terrorist organization’s tendency to restructure many of its security and military activities.
The American researcher on Middle East affairs, Ryan Buhl, says that the United States “has a long-established pattern of what happens after the assassination of ISIS leaders.”
However, he explains to Al-Hurra that “individual assassinations tend to be more effective in demoralizing militants and disrupting operations in the short term.”
Over time, “these kinds of raids and strikes are necessary to keep ISIS as an underground movement.”
In Buhl’s view, the increased frequency of raids this month is related to “the United States most likely having actionable intelligence, rather than necessarily fearing direct attacks by ISIS.”
The American researcher notes, “It appears that the intelligence network established by the United States in Syria to target ISIS has become increasingly effective.”
For his part, the Syrian researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, Nawar Shaaban, believes that “it cannot be said that ISIS is unable to carry out any operations or attacks outside the borders,” and on the contrary, “it has fluidity in movement.”
Shaaban told Al-Hurra: “Leaders in Syria now prefer to export terrorism abroad, since the impact is greater,” and therefore the US strikes target the “planners” as a preemptive step for anything to come.
Hassan Abu Haniyeh, a researcher in the affairs of extremist groups, points out, saying: “There is an American fear of restructuring and carrying out actual operations, whether by ISIS or al-Qaeda.”
He adds to the “Al-Hurra” website that the increasing US raids fall within the framework of “pre-emptive operations against anyone involved in an al-Qaeda or ISIS project,” meaning that “all planners will be a target.”
“divergent geographies”
Since the announcement of the elimination of its caliphate in 2019, and the loss of all areas of its control, the organization has retreated to the Syrian desert, which extends between the governorates of Homs (central) and Deir ez-Zor (east), at the border with Iraq, where its fighters are entrenched in mountainous areas.
Despite this, its members are still able to launch bloody attacks, which was documented by human rights monitors during the past months, whether in the areas where its cells spread in the desert or within the various areas of influence.
Meanwhile, since the beginning of 2022, the great momentum of the strikes imposed by the US forces in Syria was remarkable, killing many prominent leaders of the organization, whose names had not previously been revealed in the presence of the names of “Al-Baghdadi” and “Al-Qurashi” and others.
And the “Central America” always warns that “ISIS will regain its recruitment efforts and rebuild momentum,” and that “it is able to reshape its ability to plan attacks against allies in the region, whether at home or abroad.”
The Syrian researcher Shaaban explains that the leader who killed the two, or those who preceded him, will not be the last leaders, pointing to the existence of “a general network of ISIS that is not yet known.”
He says, “There are a lot of leaders distributed in distant geography. Therefore, the risk of restructuring them still exists, and the same applies to the attacks.”
Researcher Abu Haniyeh adds, “ISIS is undergoing permanent restructuring, and it is more coherent on this level. It integrates local and global dimensions, and is more dangerous than al-Qaeda.”
The researcher believes that there is a natural and traditional action for America in the context of combating terrorism, represented by “cutting off heads on the battlefield”, and relying on the strategy that developed by striking from the horizon.
“The approach of striking from the sky has become essential, far from sending forces to the ground,” which falls within the framework of the recent escalation of operations, most of which are in Syria.
Abu Haniyeh explains, “What matters to the US administration is protecting itself from any attacks or its allies in Europe. It always follows al-Qaeda with all its Syrian and regional branches, as well as ISIS and its networks.”
“These groups still maintain the same ideology that wants to target the far enemy – that is, America and its allies,” and therefore the researcher points out that “the agencies charged with combating terrorism always have kill lists for dangerous people, according to reports they receive from the ground.”
He explains that the issue of the leadership of “ISIS” is still mobile and dynamic, which applies to the “Al-Qaeda” organization, and that both groups of the two organizations are “greatly dangerous now”, as they are now finding a kind of rest, due to the states’ preoccupation with themselves.
“There is fear in Syria,” and “it is still considered a dangerous region until now and could incite so-called global terrorism,” according to Abu Haniyeh, and he says: “This is what makes America re-read and understand everything that is happening.”
