In the coming week, it is data from the United States in particular that the economists have in their sights.
The first perfect week after Easter is just around the corner.
Here at home, it will be a relatively quiet week, apart from the salary settlement which ended with a general strike.
This week, data that doesn’t usually get much attention will be of greater interest.
– The market is looking for all information that can tell something about how the banking trouble has affected the economy, says chief economist Kjersti Haugland at DNB Markets.
On Wednesday, there will be a survey that can say something about this.
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Comment: “The clock is ticking towards a stock market crash”
Fed survey
There is particularly great tension attached to the signals coming from the American central bank, the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday evening Norwegian time. Then comes the so-called “Beige Book”, which is an update on how the bank perceives the American economy now.
– You pay extra close attention to key figures that are not usually that important. The market is more aware now and wonders if there is a turning point in the economy, and is looking for signs that companies have experienced a negative turnaround, for example that they are putting investment decisions on hold, says Haugland and adds:
– Now the big question is to what extent the banking crisis affected the economy and therefore how far the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
The less the banking problem appears to have affected the economy, the more likely it is that the Fed will raise interest rates.
US PMI figures
Friday will also see preliminary US PMI figures for April, both for the service and industrial sectors. PMI stands for Purchasing Managers’ Index, and is a survey of purchasing managers around companies.
– Usually this is not followed very closely, because the ISM index is what people are most concerned about, but these figures come ahead of the ISM figures, so they will get more attention than usual, says Haugland.
A PMI above 50 means that things are picking up, while a PMI below 50 means that business activity is slowing down.
At the same time, several people in the Fed will give speeches this week, where both possible concerns about the economy and the way forward with regard to interest rate increases may come to light.
– We believe that the stage is set for a mild recession in the USA. What has happened with the banking crisis has strengthened our belief in this, and we also believe that there will be further interest rate increases from the Fed.
European PMI
The same applies to several European countries: On Friday, preliminary PMI figures for April will be released in both France, Great Britain, Germany and the Eurozone.
Here, too, one is curious as to what impact the banking trouble has had.
– There has been a positive development in the service sector where the PMI has climbed quite a bit in the first quarter. It stagnated towards the end of 2022, but had an upswing in the first quarter. Now we get the first PMI figures from the start of the second quarter, so the question is whether it is climbing or down, says Haugland.
DNB Markets expects PMI figures for the Eurozone to fall slightly, precisely as a result of the banking crisis, which has had effects in that companies have waited to place orders.
– We are not convinced, but have included in our estimates that both services and industry PMi in the Eurozone have dipped slightly again in April, says Haugland.
Storstreik
The labor organizations LO and YS said on Sunday afternoon no to the outline that the national mediator put forward. As a result, there was a break in the mediation in the wage settlement and a general strike.
The parties had been in mediation since Friday, after no agreement was reached during the negotiations before Easter.
LO and YS have both demanded increased purchasing power, that wages should increase more than the rise in prices. Both have expressed that the solution outlined on Sunday was not good enough.
NHO, for its part, accepted this outline. NHO leader Ole Erik Almlid also believes the workers’ side should accept it, and says they have gone to great lengths to avoid a strike.
This year’s wage settlement is a so-called interim settlement, which means that only wages were negotiated. It is the first time in modern times that there has been a strike in an intermediate settlement.
LO and YS have already announced that the strike will be stepped up further on Friday, so that a total of 40,000 employees will be taken out on strike.
