© Reuters. FILE PHOTO. A woman holds dollar bills in this illustration taken on May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Por Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) – Americans said last month that access to credit is at its most difficult level in nearly a decade, as they braced for higher levels of inflation in the coming years, according to a report. of the New York Federal Reserve released Monday.
In the March Consumer Expectations Survey, the agency found that the share of households saying credit is harder to get compared to a year ago rose to the highest level ever, in a study dating back to 2014. The report indicated that “respondents were more pessimistic about the availability of credit in the future, with the proportion of households expecting it to be more difficult to obtain credit a year from now also rising.”
Meanwhile, households expect inflation within a year to stand at 4.7%, compared to 4.2% in February. This is the first increase in inflation expected within a year since October. Three years ahead, inflation would stand at 2.8%, compared to 2.7% the previous month, while five years ahead, respondents said they expected inflation to be 2.5%, compared to 2.6% last month. last month.
Despite expectations of higher inflation in the short term, survey participants forecast a decline in gasoline, food and rental prices, as well as a 1.8% rise in house prices.
Rising inflation expectations could pose a new challenge to the Fed’s efforts to reduce inflation. Central bankers generally believe that the direction the public expects price pressures to take has a strong influence on the current inflation situation.
Over the past year, the Fed has waged a very aggressive campaign to reduce inflation, currently at 5%, down to 2%, and signs that it may be starting to cool have opened the door for an end to the rate hike cycle. rates.
The Fed’s rate hikes are aimed at making credit more expensive, so it’s not surprising that households are reporting problems getting loans. That being said, respondents stated that their current and future financial situation improved in March, amid expectations of increases in both household income and spending.
Although the Fed report does not mention the situation, the survey was produced in a month when the financial system was rocked by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the problems of other financial institutions, prompting the Fed to lend significant amounts of money to the banking community.
The monetary authorities have stressed that they consider the banking system to be sound and that the trouble spots are isolated.
(Edited in Spanish by Carlos Serrano)
