Less than 10 months from its organization, it is still the artistic blur around the presidential election of 2024. If its date is officially fixed for next February 25, the names of the real candidates who will have to compete for the supreme magistracy have yet to be determined for various reasons related to sponsorship, too many candidacies or simply the legal and judicial mortgage on the eligibility of certain political actors. All this in an extremely charged political climate against a backdrop of flawed electoral process, “mortal kombat” and irredentism of the political class, power and opposition alike.
The presidential election that is looming for the year 2024 seems set to be that of all anomalies. Less than ten months from the organization of the said poll, the electoral process which should facilitate its contours lacks panache and continues to arouse suspicion on the part of the opposition and political observers. This is already evidenced by the official setting of the date of February 25, 2024 for the holding of the ballot, a date that the President of the Republic pulled out despite the recriminations of many actors who demanded his official announcement, to remain within the framework of the republican exercise. The same was true for the start of the exceptional revision of the electoral lists. And there too, the Ministry of the Interior, responsible for the procedure, probably dragged its feet before stopping the period, from April 06 to May 06. Only 30 days to allow first-time voters of a population today estimated at 18 million inhabitants due to massive growth to register on the electoral lists. Consequence: since the day before yesterday, Thursday, it is the masterful rush towards the administrative commissions of a youth who want to be themselves masters of their destiny. This extremely short period of the exceptional revision of the lists did not fail to raise many questions on the part of opposition actors and civil society, even going so far as to push Cosce and other so-called neutral organizations to require the authority to extend the review period. It now remains to be seen whether first-time voters, with this very shortened period, will all be able to benefit from their voter card and play their part in the upcoming presidential election.
Alongside an electoral process still in its infancy towards next February, the presidential election that is looming is undermined by the very nature of the citizen sorting that is imposed on candidates. For good reason, the sponsorship now enacted for all types of election in Senegal remains the way of the cross for pretenders to the supreme magistracy. Although dozens of applications have been declared on the left and on the right, rare will be the actors who will exceed the bar of sponsors required, that is to say 0.8 of the registered ones. The 2019 presidential election is a clear example of this. Out of 27 application files, only five managed to break through the sponsorship barrier. This had provoked many incriminations and suspicions against President Macky Sall and the state apparatus, accused of having tampered with the electoral register. Since then, the State of Senegal has been invited by ECOWAS to invalidate this system of citizen sponsorship. Even the Cena (Autonomous National Electoral Commission) then headed by the magistrate Doudou Ndir pleaded for a revision of the system which does not allow the free exercise of the rights of candidates.
In addition to problematic sponsorship which forces candidates to declare themselves without any guarantee of participation, the presidential election of 2024 is anecdotal in that the main leaders of the significant opposition are threatened with ineligibility. From Khalifa Ababacar Sall of Taxawu Senegal (undisputed mayor of Dakar from 2009 to 2017, date of his dismissal by Macky Sall) to Karim Wade (candidate of the Pds, the former party in power from 2000 to 2012), via Ousmane Sonko of Pastef-Les Patriotes (who came third in the last presidential election), none of the leaders of the major opposition parties are guaranteed to participate in the 2024 elections. If Khalifa Sall and Karim Wade, who benefited from a presidential pardon, are in expectation of an amnesty which would restore their status as voters, the mayor of Ziguinchor sees the sword of Damocles suspended above his head. From the simple fact of political and judicial affairs (Sweet Beauté and Prodac affair) which mortgage his candidacy, under the dictation of a power determined to remove his eligibility.
The great nebula that surrounds the election next February is also the controversial third candidacy of the outgoing president. Although he has not yet officially pronounced his declaration of candidacy, President Macky Sall is being watched like milk on the fire. On the one hand, by an opposition which rejects him any other candidacy for the supreme magistracy in the name of Article 27 of the Constitution which stipulates that “No one can serve more than two consecutive terms”. And on the other side, by his own supporters who force him to run for another five-year term. And even there, frontal opposition could emerge internally if he ever crossed the Rubicon as his camp suggests to him. Idrissa Seck de Rewmi, former Prime Minister, candidate who came second in the 2019 presidential election, is thus on the alert, apparently waiting for an exit from the President on the question, to break the pseudo deal who had brought him into the presidential camp.
These gray areas on the presidential election next February are weighed down by the extreme political tension marked by the expression of two irredentists engaged in a “mortal kombat”. On the side of the regime in place as well as the opposition, we seem determined in the absence of any structured political dialogue to use all the shortcuts to stay in power or get there next February. Quit setting fire to the powder. Consequence: never in the political history of Senegal, has a presidential election counted so many explosive lead screeds.
MOCTAR DIENG
