This week, Putin’s security measures have been in the spotlight a lot. Nettavisen mentioned on Tuesday how the Russian president is said to have deployed air defenses at several of the places he stays most often.
NRK discussed Russian defector Gleb Karakulov’s depictions of Putin’s security measures. The 36-year-old Russian talks about how Putin gets all his information via a couple of selected people and never uses a mobile phone or the internet. Now former CIA chief, James Olson, believes that Putin has good reasons to be a little paranoid.
– Putin is destroying Russia, but I think there are some good, patriotic Russians who will find out that enough is enough. I think Putin is going to be killed. I would not rule out an assassination, says Olson to the British newspaper The Sun.
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Putin’s fear
The American worked for the US intelligence service for 30 years, some of them as head of the part of the service that works to prevent foreign intelligence against the US. He is now a professor of intelligence at Texas A&M University.
Olson tells The Sun that he does not think the war will end until Putin is removed from power. He expresses that distrust of Putin is very high among oligarchs and other high-ranking Russians in the Russian military leadership.
The high death toll is cited as a reason why the Russian elite should be as dissatisfied and desperate as Olson claims. He believes the generals on the battlefield will soon realize that the war is too expensive.
– When they realize that, Putin’s days are numbered. He will not survive a rebellion among the generals. I consider it much more likely that Putin will be eliminated than that they will go on a military defeat, says the former CIA top to The Sun.
Not entirely convinced
Intelligence expert and head teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Tom Røseth, is not entirely convinced by Olson’s statements, and chooses a slightly more subdued approach to the question of whether Putin should fear for his life.
– Putin is extremely careful, and we see that he has an incredible amount of security around him, so I think it will be difficult. A lot because the Russian security services see that threat as so great. So I consider it unlikely as the situation is now, says Røseth to Nettavisen.
At the same time, he completely agrees that the Russian president is a desirable target for people with sinister intentions.
– When you are an authoritarian leader, you are immediately a target for political activists in your own country. After all, there are cases of terrorist attacks in Russia that may also have the purpose of reaching Putin. Then he has criticism from actors who are dissatisfied with the war and its course, but no one dares to express this too strongly, says the head teacher.
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Coup more likely
In contrast to his American colleague, Røseth believes that a coup is more likely. Among other things, he highlights the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004, where the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych cheated his way to victory in the presidential election, only to be deposed in the subsequent revolution.
– If there are to be political changes in Russia, it is currently most likely to happen through an elite coup or popular uprising. In other words, something that overthrows the regime or resembles the Orange Revolution, which is Putin’s fear.
Røseth says that if there are actors who believe that Putin must be thrown, then the risk is high that Putin’s security services know about it. And should anyone have such ideas, the aforementioned security services will crack down on them.
– I think it is the elite who must make a change of president, because everything is screwed up to secure the current regime, and the elite depends on Putin to keep their advantages. If someone has such thoughts, it is something they are extremely careful about, says Røseth.
Ukrainian offensive
A Ukrainian offensive is expected in the coming months. Røseth, on the other hand, believes that Putin can get into trouble when the battlefields are dry, Ukraine mounts an offensive, and Russia fails militarily.
– Then the probability of replacements of the defense leadership under Putin increases. He has a small circle of people he trusts, who are also around 70 years old. I don’t think a revolution is going to happen, but things could change around Putin, and suddenly he doesn’t have his old gang around him in whom he has full confidence.
Røseth, who has led the Norwegian Armed Forces’ research project on Ukraine, points out that it is difficult to bring about a political change in Russia. He says he has little faith in an imminent change of power.
– A lid has been placed over the political influence, but when it starts to bubble it will burst at some point. Maybe by Putin’s death, maybe not.
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Not paranoid
Putin is described by defector Karakulov as highly paranoid. Among other things, Putin will travel around with a telephone booth-like installation in tow, only to avoid being eavesdropped by foreign intelligence. Nevertheless, Røseth believes that Putin is not paranoid.
– He is not necessarily paranoid, but he probably exaggerates the security threats against himself, but again, there may be good reasons for this. After all, he is a man who in principle makes all important decisions, so he is an important target for those who want changes. He is extremely safety conscious, probably rightfully so. After all his time as leader of Russia, he probably sees himself as indispensable to the people and the elite.
The alternative for ending the war in Ukraine that Røseth, on the other hand, buys is for Putin to cash in on a victory in Ukraine, which does not quite allow itself to be reflected as a victory in the eyes of the West.
– If Putin does not get the military victory he wanted, but keeps some of Donbas and Crimea, then he will be able to sell it as a victory for the Russian people. He will claim he has protected a population that does not want to be part of Ukraine. It will not be something that gives more than before the invasion, but it will be with the backdrop that Russia has fought against what they believe is NATO and then such a limited victory can be sold as a gain.
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