Fortunately, fears that there would be nothing to heat during the winter did not come true. It was not even necessary to limit production in industrial enterprises. The outage of Russian natural gas supplies has been replaced, and the continent has a record full gas reservoirs for this time of year. After last year’s sharp increase in energy prices, energy prices are gradually falling, although they are unlikely to fall to pre-covid levels.
The situation was helped by higher imports of liquefied natural gas LNG from overseas as well as savings in households and businesses. And also quite merciful weather.
However, the Czech energy industry now faces a much bigger task. Politicians must find a way to do without coal in the production of electricity and heat and at the same time ensure trouble-free energy supplies in the next decade.
The first disturbing shot into the debate was sent a month ago by the state-controlled transmission system operator ČEPS. In a detailed study, he developed four possible development scenarios. He warns that with a rapid transition away from coal, the Czech Republic will become a risky import country from 2030. It will be dependent on electricity imports from potentially surplus countries such as Germany and France. But you can’t rely on that. It is not certain whether Germany will build everything it is now planning.
“The German energy mix may even be dangerous for other countries in Europe, especially for the Czech Republic. In a situation where renewable sources do not go according to planned production, the German economy will drain electricity from neighboring countries in the short term and increase its price throughout Europe,” says the member the board of directors of the energy company Centropol Jiří Matoušek.
Another threat is that the country may not export the excess electricity, but use it more lucratively, for example to produce green hydrogen. The authors of the ČEPS report draw attention to the risk that the import of electricity may exceed ten percent of domestic electricity consumption. Therefore, imports are heading beyond the limit that government documents still consider safe operation of the electricity grid.
Savings and the core as a foundation
In other words, there is nothing left but to start building new power plants as quickly as possible. The head of ČEZ, Daniel Beneš, says that the energy industry is bound to face big investments. “It is necessary because old sources will outlive and at the same time electricity consumption will increase. There will be a significant increase in the electrification of a number of industries that are now built on other sources of primary energy,” says the head of the semi-state company.
The most obvious is electromobility or heat pumps, but electricity will penetrate elsewhere as well. For example, in production processes in industry, for example in smelters or glass factories.
The Minister of Industry and Trade, Jozef Síkela, promises to develop a new state energy concept this year. In other words, a detailed updated document on how the Czech energy industry should look like in the future. Its preparation has already been delayed for several years. The valid concept was created eight years ago, but since then the energy environment has changed significantly due to the tightening of climate commitments.
First of all, Síkela states that the Czech Republic must significantly improve energy savings and strengthen energy efficiency. And also to catch up with Europe in the field of renewable resources. “While in the EU last year a total of 22 percent of electricity was produced using solar and wind power plants, in our country it was only around 3.5 percent,” says the minister. In one breath, however, he adds that the indisputable basis of the domestic energy industry must be nuclear power. “We are also examining the possibility of building other nuclear sources,” says Síkela.
There is currently a competition for the construction of one nuclear unit in Dukovany. If everything goes according to plan, it will deliver the first electricity to the grid in 2036. That is, only a few years after leaving coal, as the most ambitious scenarios paint it. Moreover, it barely covers a tenth of the current consumption. The government therefore wants to decide in the coming months whether to use the option included in the tender.
She could agree with the winning bidder on one more new reactor in Dukovany and up to two in Temelín. However, even these would not cover the eventual lack of electricity in the first half of the 1930s. And later, for the most part, they will just replace the original Dukovan reactors, which, according to current assumptions, will end in the mid-1940s. Even small modular reactors will be added at a rather slower pace.
Entire article you can read in the current edition of the weekly Ekonom.
