For over a year of fierce fighting and enormous destruction, the war in Ukraine has developed into a protracted war of positions, where Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are fighting for every metre.
Several experts have feared that Russia’s huge population and abundant natural resources will eventually give Putin an upper hand.
But this is nothing more than a game by the Russian president, claims CIA veteran Douglas London. He believes Putin’s willingness to enter a war of attrition is nothing more than a paper tiger.
– Putin probably does not want a long war of attrition, but wants the world to believe that he does. His disinformation campaigns are designed to portray himself and Russia as stronger than they are, writes London in The Wall Street Journal.
The American has worked for the Central Intelligence Agency for more than 30 years and, according to himself, has worked against the Kremlin’s intelligence services for a long time.
Causing headaches in Putin’s inner circle
– Russia’s biggest export is fear
A modern war is waged as much on the media front as on the battlefield, claims Russia expert Jakub M. Godzimirski. He agrees with London and believes that such propaganda has been a historical part of Russia’s strategy.
– There are many who say that Russia’s biggest export is fear, he tells Dagbladet.
EXPORTING FEAR: Jakub M. Godzimirski has worked on Russian foreign and security policy at NUPI for over 20 years and explains that appearing superior is absolutely fundamental in Russian military strategy. Photo: NUPI
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Godzimirski, who has worked with Russian foreign and security policy at NUPI for over 20 years, explains that this is a fundamental part of how Russia operates on and off the battlefield.
– Such deception, which the Russians call “Maskirovka”, is absolutely fundamental in Russian military strategy. It means that you have to mislead the opponent and make him believe that you are going to do something, while you actually have completely different plans, he tells Dagbladet.
He believes such tactics are baked into Vladimir Putin’s identity and come naturally to the former spy.
– Putin volunteered for the KGB, was trained as a Soviet spy and sent on a mission to the GDR. One must assume that this shaped him as a person and many say that this KGB mentality is what permeates today’s power elite in Russia.
KGB AGENT: Before becoming Russia’s leader, Putin was a KGB agent. Jakub M. Godzimirski believes this has had a major effect on how he leads the country. Photo: Wikipedia Commons / www.kremlin.ru
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– Limit for losses
Godzimirski says that despite having historically been willing to lose large numbers of soldiers (the Soviet Union lost around 8.6 million soldiers during World War II), there are limits to how much Putin’s reputation can withstand.
– Another fact in Russian strategy is an apparently greater tolerance for enormous losses of human life, but in today’s Russia there is probably a limit to what Putin’s regime can tolerate from losses on the battlefield and not least in prestige and reputation.
– The core of his legitimacy
Jakub M. Godzimirski tells Dagbladet that it is critical for Putin to appear as a competent leader during a major war.
– That is why the regime is trying to portray this war as a kind of war of survival for Russia – and the aim is to mobilize support for the regime. Losses that are too large could undermine confidence in Putin as a capable leader, which has been at the core of his legitimacy over the past 22 years.
He explains that this may have put the Russian president in a difficult situation.
– It may therefore appear that Putin is willing to make a lot of sacrifices on the battlefield in order to survive and what was supposed to be a blitzkrieg has turned, without one’s wishes, into a war of attrition. For now this war is also about the survival of the regime.
Battle between the TV and the fridge
Douglas London believes that the pressure from Western sanctions and a lack of trading partners for Russian oil and gas may lead to Putin having to make a choice between strangling the Russian economy or financing the war in Ukraine.
Godzimirski agrees with the American ex-agent that the Russian economy will be critical to Putin’s popularity in the future.
– They say that Russian politics is about a battle between the TV and the fridge. The TV stands for propaganda while the fridge represents personal finances. In the past, Putin managed to pursue policies that did not have overly negative consequences for Russians’ personal finances, although this has changed in recent years. Should the consequences of the defeat in Ukraine be too great, it could definitely challenge Putin’s power.
– Putin in knipe
Jakub M. Godzimirski believes that it may be difficult for Putin to maintain the “Maskirovka strategy” in the future.
– I think Putin is in a predicament. It is important to him to win this war, but at the same time it may be dawning on him that the goals he has been trying to achieve are beyond his reach. It does not appear that he can win this war without further mobilization of human and financial resources. Many people ask how he manages to make it happen.
CIA veteran Douglas London believes it is time for the West to see Putin’s bluff:
– It is crucial that Washington instead works to make the war too costly for Mr. Putin to remove any doubt about Western resolve. Be careful what cards he chooses to show.
