Kasikorn Bank (KBank) looks at the movement of the baht next week (27-31 March) at a level of 33.80-34.50 baht / dollar from the close of the market on Friday, March 24, 2023 at the level of 34.12 baht / dollar. dollar. In the past week, the baht moved volatilely. before reaching the highest level in 5 weeks after the outcome of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. In addition, there should be pressure to buy back the dollar. to adjust some positions before the Fed meeting
However, the baht turned around to strengthen along with Asian currencies as a whole after the Fed meeting. while the dollar face selling pressure amid expectations that The Fed is close to ending its upward rate cycle after the dot plot suggests the Fed may raise interest rates one more time before the end of the year. The baht briefly slipped below 34.00 and hit its highest level in five weeks at 33.91 baht/dollar. pressured by lower bond yields and US banking problems However, the framework for the appreciation of the baht was limited at the end of the week. As the market returns to worry about problems with European banks. And wait to follow up on the results of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on March 29 as well.
As for the investment portfolio status of foreign investors between March 20-24, foreign investors net sold Thai stocks at 5,242 million baht and net outflows from the Thai bond market at 11 million baht (net buy 109 million baht, while debt instruments expired 120 million baht)
While evaluating important factors to monitor next week, including the MPC meeting results, economic and financial reports, and Thai export figures in February. Evolving Bank Problems in the United States Trends in Foreign Capital and Asian Currencies
The key US economic data is the number of pending home sales contracts. and Inflation as measured by PCE/Core PCE Price Index Feb. Confidence Index and Inflation Expectations from Consumer Perspectives in March. Fourth Quarter 2022 GDP (final) and weekly jobless claims In addition, the market is still waiting for March inflation data. of the eurozone, including the manufacturing/services PMI index for March of China
